Monday, March 03, 2008

Gaza: a strategic review

From THE JERUSALEM POST Mar. 3, 2008, by Herb Keinon:

...Defense officials told The Jerusalem Post the IDF had short-term goals for a limited offensive, such as the one now under way, dubbed "Hot Winter," and longer-term goals for a larger operation.

The longer-term goals for an IDF operation that has not yet been approved by the government include "weakening and even bringing down the Hamas government," the officials said. The other goals of a much broader operation in Gaza include putting an end to the rocket fire and dramatically reducing the smuggling of arms from Egypt into Gaza.

The short-term goals are to shift Israeli cities out of Kassam range...delivering a heavy blow to Hamas; and hitting the Kassam production line. "Israel wants to stop the rocket fire," one senior official said. "If it is done through diplomatic means, that's one way. But if it isn't, then we will have to do it militarily."

The official said it was no coincidence that the security cabinet was not meeting until Wednesday to discuss the government's goals and aims in Gaza, after the Rice visit, to see if her intervention would put an end to Hamas's rocket fire. The officials said that if Rice were able to bring about calm by getting Hamas to stop the attacks, it was unlikely that the government would go ahead on Wednesday and okay a widespread ground push into Gaza....

....The sources said the level of the fighting tapered off on Sunday, largely because the combat was most intense when the IDF first penetrated into Gaza. Once the army was deployed there, the intensity diminished, as those who resisted were either killed or retreated.

Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, meanwhile, said that since Wednesday, an average of 50 rockets had hit the South per day, including 13 Grad missiles in Ashkelon. He said about 100 Palestinians had been killed in the fighting and that, despite media reports that the majority were civilians, 90 were terrorists....

....OC Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin expanded on this and provided the ministers with an overall assessment of what Hamas was trying to do by increasing its rocket fire, saying that the organization's decision to bombard Israeli communities was connected to its own strategic situation.

Having been in power now for more than two years, Hamas was dissatisfied with its overall situation and decided that it needed to take dramatic action .... He added that Israel's killing of a "high-quality" terrorist cell on Wednesday, made up of operatives who had trained in Syria, Lebanon and Iran, was also a severe blow to the Islamist organization.

Yadlin said Hamas was trying to create new rules for the game. However, he added, "I want to say that with all attention on the South, when I look at the threats on Israel, I remember Iran, Syria and Hizbullah. The fact that they are not shooting now does not mean that they are outside of the battle. The opposite is true. They are all looking to see how this will end, and how this will end [will significantly affect] how they will act." ...

...Hamas signaled by firing fewer rockets on Friday that it was interested in calming down the situation, and was surprised that Israel responded with a massive offensive on Saturday, he said....

...Olmert said Israel would continue to protect its citizens in the South. "Nobody has the right to preach morality to the State of Israel for taking basic action to defend itself and to prevent hundreds of thousands of residents of the South from continually being exposed to incessant firing that disrupts their lives."...

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