Friday, October 29, 2010
France caves in to terrorist threats
Just a day after Osama bin Laden warned France to remove its troops from Afghanistan, French Defense Minister Herve Morin announced Thursday, Oct. 28 that the withdrawal of French troops would begin in early 2011. Paris then raised its terror alert level to "red" after confirming the authenticity of the Bin Laden audiotape aired Wednesday.
...Morin tried hard to explain that the decision to pull the 3,750 French troops out of Afghanistan was not connected to the Bin Laden warning - but he was not convincing.
...never since the September 11, 2001 attacks on America, has any Western country caved in so quickly and precisely to an Al Qaeda ultimatum.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Philippe Petain's antisemitism unmasked
[The discovery of an original W2 document establishes Vichy leader Philippe Petain's decisive role and reveals his deep antisemitism, French Nazi hunter Serge Klarsfeld told AFP.]
...Petain, a military hero in World War I, became head of the rump state based at Vichy in central France which collaborated with the German Nazi occupiers following defeat in World War II.
The penciled-in changes to the document, from October 1940, are a "profound alteration" of the document's nature, Klarsfeld said.
While the original set out to exclude "descendants of Jews born French or naturalized before 1860", Petain crossed out this reference, thus applying the measures to all Jews in France.
The scope of Jews' exclusion is considerably widened, with the minority being barred from jobs in teaching and the judiciary as well as prevented from standing for elected office.
"The main argument of Petain's defenders was to say that he protected French Jews. This argument has now fallen," he said...
'Desire to turn Jews into scapegoats'
...Now, we have definite proof that the Jews' status was the personal will of marshal Petain," said Klarsfeld.
Petain wanted "to show that France deserved to be at the forefront of the new European order. There was also the desire to turn the Jews into scapegoats for the defeat" of France by the Nazis, said Klarsfeld.
"The status of Jews was a specifically French measure, spontaneous. The Germans didn't ask Vichy France to take this measure...
Nevertheless, of all Nazi-occupied countries, France was the one where "the Jewish community suffered the least tragic harm," said Klarsfeld. Around three-quarters of the Jewish population survived, or around 240,000 out of 320,000. "That's not thanks to France but to the French, thanks to all the courageous people who helped the Jews all over the place," he said.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Russia, France join US call to halt East Jerusalem construction
One day after the United States demanded that Israel stop building projects in east Jerusalem, Russia joined the call, urging the Jewish state to immediately halt construction in the area, and saying that a failure to do so would be a violation of the road map peace agreement.
...France also summoned the Israeli ambassador in Paris to demand a halt to the building in east Jerusalem, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was quoted by the news agency as saying on Tuesday...
Monday, June 22, 2009
Netanyahu and Sarkozy: Personal Chemistry versus Political Disagreements
Executive Summary: Netanyahu and Sarkozy resemble each other in their charismatic leadership, their dynamic capitalist approach and their global view of security threats. Yet, during their scheduled meeting in Paris on June 24, 2009, substantial disagreements might surface on issues such as French demands for the freezing of the settlements in Judea and Samaria and the division of Jerusalem. These demands are fervently opposed by Netanyahu. Concurrently, the French, inter alia, criticize Netanyahu for his firm preconditions that the Palestinians 1) recognize Israel as a Jewish state and 2) demilitarize.
On June 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are scheduled to meet in Paris for the first time since Israeli elections in February 2009. The two charismatic leaders ...have publicly declared their mutual sentiments of friendship and respect, [and] have much in common.
[including support for]
- dynamic capitalist approach
- regional cooperation through common economic projects [as] an effective instrument in promoting peace
- attachment to democratic liberal values
- stress the threats to democratic regimes emanating from fanatic terror groups and countries
- attribute importance to enhancing cooperation among such democratic and moderate regimes in order to contain the ongoing fanatic Islamist assault
- ascribe tremendous significance to international security issues and especially to the challenges of coping with global terror and proliferation of non-conventional arms
- regard the relations of their countries with the United States as a top priority in confronting the abovementioned threats.
Yet despite the mutual declarations of friendship between the two heads of states, some significant divergences might surface.
- [on Iran] Sarkozy believes that only dialogue on one hand and international sanctions on the other can stop the Iranian nuclear project. ...[he] opposes any eventual military option, which in his opinion might endanger the entire world. On the contrary, Netanyahu seems more reserved toward the consequences of dialogue and international sanctions and does not exclude the option of preventive military intervention against Iran.
- freezing of settlements,
- lifting of security barriers in Judea and Samaria and the opening of border crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip
- preconditions for Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state as well as his demand for the demilitarization of the future Palestinian state were equally criticized by the French
- Sarkozy insists that East Jerusalem should become the capital of the Palestinian state.
- the speaker of the French foreign ministry insisted on French support for UN Resolution 194 (December 1948), which implies the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
In conclusion, it seems that Netanyahu's forthcoming visit to the city of lights will probably expose significant political discrepancies between Israeli and French positions. It is doubtful whether the personal chemistry between the two leaders can bridge the gap in their positions, unless they decide to accent their common objectives, interests and values.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Netanyahu backs out on planned visit to French capital next week
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu cancelled a meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkozy scheduled for next week, reportedly amid anger at France for its position on the final status of Jerusalem.
Additionally, sources in the Prime Minister's Office said that Netanyahu wanted to distance his recent - and highly publicized - meeting with US President Barack Obama from his relations with European countries.
A PMO official confirmed that Netanyahu postponed his European trip because he believed preparations for the visit were incomplete.
But statements released by the French Foreign Ministry provided an alternative reason for the cancellation. Ministry spokesman Frederic Desagneaux said "The declaration which the Israeli prime minister issued yesterday derives from prejudice regarding the final status agreement," referring to Netanyahu's pledge on Jerusalem Day, last week, that Jerusalem would "never again be divided or partitioned."
"In the eyes of France," Desagneaux said, "Jerusalem needs to turn into a capital for two states," emphasizing that French President Sarkozy made the same point last year.
"Activities like destroying Palestinian houses and expulsion of Arab citizens encourage violence," the spokesperson said. "They are unacceptable, and against international law."
...In an earlier address, President Shimon Peres said that Jerusalem, while sacred to others, is the only capital Israel and the Jewish people have ever known.
"Jerusalem is held sacred by half of mankind [but] it has been and always will be Israel's capital. We never had another and it has never been the capital of any other people."
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
France Fears Letting Anti-Zionist Comic Run in Elections
French officials are trying to ban the rabid anti-Zionist and Jew-hating comedian Dieudonne M'Bala M'Bala from fielding candidates in the country’s June regional elections. The comic has been fined at least five times for using terms such as “memorial pornography” when referring to Jews, and he faces a trial this week for inciting hatred against Jews.
Dieudonne’s political partner is Alain Soral, formerly associated with Jean Marie Le Pen’s far-right National Front, which has preached anti-Semitic views and Holocaust denial.
The comedian's political activity has alarmed officials, and Claude Gueant, chief of staff for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, told listeners on two French radio programs that Dieudonne should not be allowed to be active in political campaigns. "Dieudonne is anti-Semitic all the time, it's absolutely odious," Gueant stated. "Public authorities are trying to see where these plans [to curb Dieudonne's party] stand under the law. I'm not sure if we'll be able to ban them."
...Dieudonne, who is 43 years old ...has been involved in European Union elections as a candidate or head of a party since 1997. Among other epithets, he has called Jews a “fraud, which is the worst of all, because [they were] the first.” On a live television show, he dressed himself as a hareidi religious Jew and performed the Hitler salute. He was fined nearly $10,000 three years ago for calling a widely-known Jewish television personality a secret donor of the "child-murdering Israeli army.”
Dieudonne once told a press conference that the Jews in France are a mafia who have "total control over French policy.” He also met with Hizbullah terrorists after the Second Lebanon War.
During one recent performance, with Le Pen in the audience, he invited a Holocaust denier to join him on stage in honor of his 80th birthday. Several weeks earlier, Dieudonne presented the Holocaust denier, academic Robert Faurisson, with a "prize for maladaption and impertinence” that was presented by an assistant dressed in a concentration camp uniform with a yellow star.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Assad pours icy water on Olmert-Sarkozy-Abbas upbeat peace show
French president Nicolas Sarkozy organized a jovial photo-op with Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas to launch his Mediterranean union debut in Paris Sunday, July 13, attended by 40 leaders.
The first sour note came from Syrian president Bashar Assad, who was reinstated by Sarkozy’s invitation on the international stage. He and foreign minister Walid Mualem walked out as Olmert entered to the hall to deliver a speech. Earlier, Assad had his security men jostle Israel correspondents and TV cameras out of his way as he swept past. And he firmly rejected Sarkozy’s effort to arrange a meeting with the Israeli prime minister and announced that peace with Israel could take another two years.
This reply followed Olmert’s optimistic statement to reporters: “We have never been as close to an accord as we are today.”
Abbas and Sarkozy beamed their approval of Olmert’s statement and co-chairman Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak called on Israel and the Palestinians to work harder for a peace deal to pave the way for a Palestinian state.
Behind the bonhomie, DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources report that Abbas’ Fatah and its rival, the rejectionist Palestinian Hamas, have never been so close to a peace accord as they are today, largely due to the efforts of Mubarak himself. Success in this effort would write finis to the US-sponsored Palestinian peace track with Israel.
This is the real purpose of the lengthy talks the Hamas delegations from Gaza and Damascus have been holding in Cairo. According to our sources, the rival factions have covered considerable ground:
1. Hamas has agreed to relinquish its rule of the Gaza Strip and accept a government manned by nonpartisan technocrats.
2. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, the date subject to the Hamas proviso that it is admitted to the Palestinian Liberation Organization leadership under a major structural reform.
3. Hamas and Fatah have agreed to Egyptian military forces’ deployment in the Gaza Strip to organize and train Palestinian security and intelligence bodies.
Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah, Hamas and Egypt agreed to leave Israel out in the cold and present the Palestinian reunion as a fait accompli. They reckoned that Israel would swallow the deal if captive Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit were freed. In any case, the prime minister Olmert is not expected to survive the corruption scandals gathering over his head.
The Palestinians groups and Cairo are moving forward as though George W. Bush, whose two-state solution was one of the high points of his international policy, had already left the White House....
Total Cancels Investments in Iran
PARIS — Total, the French oil giant, has decided to back away from planned investments in Iran because of political uncertainty, a company official said Thursday.
Total’s withdrawal from the country, including a planned huge gas project in the South Pars gas field, makes it the last major Western oil company to give up on Iran amid pressure from Washington to stop doing business with Tehran.
...The news was first reported Thursday in The Financial Times, which quoted the Total chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, as saying: “Today we would be taking too much political risk to invest in Iran because people will say: ‘Total will do anything for money.’ ”
...Total’s partners on the South Pars project — Royal Dutch Shell, the largest European oil company, and Repsol of Spain — pulled out in May.
The announcement of Total’s withdrawal came after Iranian missile tests Wednesday and Thursday that led Western leaders to express concern about the country’s military capabilities.
It also came after Howard L. Berman, Democrat of California and the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called for punishments for companies that invest in Iran.
“We’ve had a law on the books for a dozen years that requires such sanctions, but it never has been enforced,” Bloomberg News quoted Mr. Berman as saying at a hearing on Iran in Washington. “It’s time for our European allies and their corporations to cease investing in Iran.”...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Sarkozy's Presidency
On the eve of Nicholas Sarkozy's first state visit to Israel and one year into his presidency, it can be asked: Does Sarkozy's Presidency mark a new era in Franco-Israeli relations? The analysis below suggests that, despite a tightening of French-Israel bilateral and strategic relations under Sarkozy and an improvement in both ambiance and tone, substantial political disagreements remain between the two countries.
This is especially true in four areas:
- Israeli-Palestinian issues,
- the crisis in Lebanon,
- Sarkozy's "Arab policy" and
- Iran's nuclear drive.
Introduction
Sarkozy's election in May 2007 sparked expectations in Israel of a new era in Franco-Israeli relations. These expectations were related to Sarkozy's friendly declarations towards Israel, including his sensitivity to Israel's security challenges and his determination to fight terror. ...
... Nonetheless, one year after Sarkozy's accession, substantial differences of opinion, which have characterized French-Israeli relations in the past, still persist, despite the tightening of bilateral and strategic relations....
...Four issues serve as indicators in examining the question of whether Sarkozy's presidency represents a new era.
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
It appears that there has been no change in France's position regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Thus, on many occasions, including Shimon Peres' highly covered visit to France in March 2008, Sarkozy has declared France's hopes for the establishment of a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, by the end of 2008. The French Foreign Ministry, headed by Bernard Kouchner, continues its condemnation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and portrays them as an obstacle to the peace process, alongside that of Palestinian terrorism. France fiercely demands the removal of checkpoints intended to protect Israeli citizens from acts of Palestinian terror. Additionally, France blames Israel for the economic damage incurred by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and for the PA's failure to establish effective governance.
Indeed, France does condemn the firing of Qassam rockets and mortar rounds from Gaza on civilians in Israel and demands Hamas to stop terror activities and recognize the state of Israel. However, in an attempt to present a balanced position, it immorally equates acts of terror with acts of defense. France demands Israel's restraint and frequently denounces Israel's military operations that are meant to protect its citizens from the daily barrage of rocket and mortar rounds launched from Gaza. Additionally, France frequently criticizes Israel for the severe humanitarian situation in Gaza, although this is the result of Hamas' terrorist attacks on Israel and on the border crossings between Israel and Gaza. Additionally, France disagrees with Israel regarding the interpretation of UN Resolution 242, which calls for the return of territories seized in 1967.
Regarding the Arab refugees' right of return, an issue of almost overwhelming consensus in Israel, Sarkozy's France has not changed its official position. ...French official policy still backs UN Resolution 194, which refers to the right of return of the Palestinian refugees to Israel. It is hard to imagine that a French Foreign Ministry spokesman would declare a position that was not in accordance with the President of France, who has the constitutional authority over matters of foreign policy and security.
The Crisis in Lebanon
Sarkozy’s policy on Lebanon, much like his predecessor's, emphasizes France's historical and emotional ties to the country. As in the past, France often declares its uncompromising support for Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty as well as its resolve to bring about the dismantling of the militias in Lebanon according to UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701. Sarkozy's France stands by its refusal to declare Hizballah a terrorist organization, claiming it constitutes an integral part of Lebanese political life. .... Despite France's repeated public support for Lebanon's democratic government, France did not condemn Hizballah's use of force in order to impose its political ambitions on Lebanon's government in May 2008. On the contrary, France declared its satisfaction with the agreed resolution of the crisis, reached at the Doha conference in May 2008, presenting it as a French diplomatic success.
Sarkozy's meetings with Hizballah representatives during his recent visit to Beirut on 7 June 2008 might similarly be perceived as endorsement of Hizballah's aggressive military strategy to gain control of Lebanon....
...From an Israeli point of view, these developments certainly create risks that could give rise to a third Lebanon war, since Hizballah, much like its Iranian patron, openly declares its desire to destroy the state of Israel.
Sarkozy's "Arab Policy"
As in the past, Sarkozy's relations with the Arab and Muslim world represent a central component of France's foreign policy. Soon after assuming power, Sarkozy initiated intense contacts with Arab and Muslim countries. In addition, France launched fundraising conferences in favor of Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.
A noteworthy development in France's Middle East policy was civilian nuclear cooperation with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan, the Gulf countries and Egypt. Faced with criticism, Sarkozy asserted that in principle, Muslim and Arab states have the same right to civilian atomic energy as any other state.
Another way of promoting France's economic and political standing in the Arab world was evident in Sarkozy's initiative to create a Mediterranean Union, intended to link European and non-European countries along the Mediterranean Sea. France is organizing a conference for the inauguration of the Union on 13 July 2008. The preparations are marked by the opposition of Arab countries such as Libya and Algeria to an Israeli presence in the new forum.
Another recent development is the warming of Franco-Syrian relations, which had deteriorated since the assassination in February 2005 of Rafiq Hariri, Chirac's close friend. Sarkozy, who invited Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to the conference, also offered France's assistance in mediation between Israel and Syria and even proposed handing over the disputed area of Sheba farms to UN custody.
This abrupt reversal of French attitudes towards Syria might indicate its wish to buy calm in Lebanon and to keep Syria away from meddling in Lebanese affairs. From an Israeli point of view, such an abrupt reversal, as in the case of the Lebanese crisis, sounds warning bells as to France's capacity and willingness to deliver on its promises of support for Israel's security needs.
Iran's Nuclear Project
In contrast to the Lebanese context, which is marked by appeasing attitudes towards Iran's allies, Hizballah and Syria, Sarkozy leads a hard line against Iran's nuclear intentions. Sarkozy has declared that Iran's nuclear project and aspirations present a major threat to the world's security.
Consequently, France advocates further UN sanctions and also conducts intensive efforts to promote unilateral European sanctions. Sarkozy's position against Iran is more hard-line than that of his predecessor and is augmented by tightened cooperation with the US and Israel on this issue.
However, Sarkozy explicitly expressed his objection to military action against Iran. Sarkozy did fiercely condemned Iranian president Ahmadinejad's anti-Semitic expressions and his call for the annihilation of Israel. It remains an open question whether the discrepancy between French rhetoric and action will not again prevail on the Iranian nuclear issue, as it did in the issue of Lebanon.
Conclusion
Thus far, Sarkozy's presidency, while marked by genuine expressions and gestures of friendship towards Israel, has not changed France's deep-rooted political and economic contacts in the Arab and Muslim world. Furthermore, France has its own Middle East perceptions which do not converge with those of Israel, thus producing substantial divergences.
This state of affairs is unlikely to change dramatically in the foreseeable future, especially as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict persists and Hizballah remains dominant in Lebanon.
Yet, taking into account France's upcoming presidency of the EU (July through December of 2008) and the preoccupation of the US in the approaching presidential elections, Sarkozy's France might occupy a more prominent role as mediator between Israel and its neighbors. Israel might benefit if it consents to greater French diplomatic involvement, conditioning it on France's commitment to adhere, as much as possible, to balanced and unprejudiced political attitudes.
*BESA Perspectives is published through the generosity of the Littauer Foundation.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
French State TV Network Loses al-Dura Libel Case
In a potentially ground-breaking decision for the way the modern television news media operates, a French court today ruled against the state-owned “France 2” TV network in the long-running libel case surrounding the alleged shooting death of a Palestinian child, Mohammed al-Dura, in the Gaza Strip in 2000.
(Reports from AP, in French, here; and here from The Jerusalem Post.)
The death-footage of al-Dura – the veracity of which has been repeatedly questioned by media watchdogs, one of whom defeated France 2 in court today – became a cause célèbre in the Muslim world. Osama bin Laden referred to al-Dura in a post-9/11 video; the killers of the Wall St. Journal reporter Daniel Pearl placed a picture of him in their beheading video; streets, squares and academies have been named after al-Dura.
Today’s ruling shows there are serious doubts about France 2’s version of events, and that the entire world press – including the American TV networks – were irresponsible in being so quick to take at face value the claims of a local Palestinian cameraman working for France 2, a cameraman who has admitted his partisanship....
...and from Pajamas Media, May 21, 2008 - by Philippe Karsenty:
In a stunning reversal, a French appeals court today dismissed France 2's defamation charges against Philippe Karsenty in the controversial Mohammed al-Dura case.
Today a French court ruled that I did not defame France 2 when I said that its news report was a staged hoax....
...The al-Dura lie is an assault on our ability to think, to criticize, to evaluate, and finally to reject information — especially the right to reject information on which we base our most cherished assumptions.
One of Europe’s most cherished assumptions is that Israel is a vicious Nazi-like entity that deliberately murders Palestinian Arab children. Moreover, polls conducted in Europe have identified Israel as the greatest threat to world peace, greater than Iran and North Korea, Pakistan and Syria.
The al-Dura hoax is one of the pillars on which these assumptions rely....
...Now it is time for France 2 to acknowledge that it created and is continuing to perpetuate the worst anti-Semitic libel of our era. It’s the responsibility of the French government ... to finally reveal the truth.
Philippe Karsenty is the founder and president of Media-Ratings, an agency that closely monitors French media outlets for anti-American and anti-Israeli bias.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Jews fleeing Paris suburbs
Villepinte is one stark example of what is happening to many Jewish communities in the immigrant-heavy suburbs of the Seine-Saint-Denis region, north of Paris. Scarred by the surge in anti-Semitism that swept through France between 2000 and 2005, roughly two-thirds of the mostly Sephardic Jews who once lived in these close-knit communities have left town.
Sammy Ghozlan, the president of the Seine-Saint-Denis Council of Jewish Communities, says more than 16,000 Jews have moved out of the suburbs since 2001. Left behind are synagogues weighing whether to close and mostly poor, elderly and religious Jewish families.
Experts say the Jewish flight from the suburbs is changing the demographics of France’s Jewish community and increasing the ghettoization of Jews in the country. All of France is experiencing the problem, says University of Paris sociologist Shmuel Trigano, the author of "The Future of the Jews in France."
...."By the next generation there will be practically no more Jews in the northern Paris periphery," says Maurice Robert Fellous, the president of the Jewish community in Noisy-le-Sec, a northern Paris suburb. "In 25 years we'll have to sell our synagogue."
Since 2000, nearly 40 percent of Noisy-le-Sec’s school-aged Jewish families have pulled their children from area public schools and enrolled them in Jewish institutions, Fellous says. He attributes the shift to the area’s general anti-Jewish environment and specific incidents students have encountered, such as being beaten up and subjected to insults and taunts. Many regularly hear the cry "dirty Jew!" This shift to Jewish schools is apparent in many places in France, albeit to a lesser degree than in Noisy-le-Sec. ...
...."They chased us from Algeria and they followed us here," Robert Sebbane, 81, says of the North African Muslims responsible for much of France’s anti-Jewish crime.
In 2000, "we were shocked because we didn't think this would happen here," says Sebbane, who lives in the town of Creteil. Even in Seine-Saint-Denis, which community leaders say is a comparatively safe area, Jewish residents are subject to anti-Semitic taunts and youths regularly spit at synagogues as they walk past. Some religious Jews in France have warned community members not to display their yarmulkes in public.
In Villepinte, Hannoun says families started departing "very rapidly" in 2004, when "the reality of the situation set in." "It was horrible," he says. "You couldn't walk out of synagogue. Families couldn't take it."...
Though he has the financial means to relocate, Hannoun says he will not move so long as he is needed by Jews in Villepinte.
“After us there'll be nothing left,” Hannoun says. “We can't lower our hands while we still have a role to play. It's like being the captain on a sinking ship." ...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
France, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia secretly launch their first joint war game
...the first Persian Gulf exercise without the US in many years began Feb. 24. It will last ten days. It is also the first time the United Arab Emirates and France have invoked their 19-year old military pact. France has contributed 1,500 navy marine and air force personnel to the exercise; the UAE, 1,500 and Qatar 3,000 troops. ... a number of the advanced French Rafale B and naval units are deployed in the exercise.
While Iran is not explicitly targeted, the objectives of the maneuver are to practice repulsing marine landings by sea on the Gulf participants’ shores and missile attacks from the east, i.e. Iran. The joint force is also drilling tactics to defend their oil and gas fields and oil ports.
While the Saudi army is not directly participating in the maneuver, King Abdullah has permitted some of the air and naval movements to take place in the kingdom’s territorial waters and over its air space.
...It will be France’s first military foothold in the Persian Gulf region. French president Nicolas Sarkozy and the UAE government agreed to establish this base with the approval of US president George W. Bush during their respective Gulf tours last month.
Friday, December 28, 2007
What to watch in 2008
...2007 ...here are some of its significant trends which will continue to dominate the year to come.
Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip.
This is the most important single Middle East event of 2007 because it is a clear, probably irreversible, shift in the balance of power. ...it is conceivable that Hamas will take over the West Bank within a few years and marginalize its rival. To Islamists, this is a great victory.
In fact, it is a disaster for Palestinians and Arabs.... A negotiated resolution of the Arab-Israeli or Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with it prospects for a Palestinian state, has been set back for decades.
...In years to come, struggles between Arab nationalists and Islamists, as well as between Sunnis and Shias, will dwarf the Arab-Israeli conflict. During 2008 we will have to assess whether the Palestinian Authority still ruling the West Bank can meet the Hamas challenge. (We already know it won't meet the diplomatic challenge but it will take all year for most Western politicians and much of the media to discover that.)
The military success of the U.S. surge in Iraq.
U.S. forces showed that pessimistic assessments were wrong and they were able to reduce the power of anti-government insurgents and lower the death toll in Iraq. However, this is a long way from winning the war.
During 2008 the two key questions will be whether U.S. troop withdrawals start in earnest and whether there is any political progress in bringing together Sunni and Shia communities in that country....
The Western failure to tighten sanctions substantially against Iran.
It was clear in 2007 that negotiations with Tehran would fail to deter Iran from its campaign to obtain nuclear weapons. Certainly, France, Britain and Germany were more willing to take--or at least to talk about taking--action but due to their own hesitations, plus resistance from Russia and China, very little happened.
The reaction to these events in Iran was mixed. On one hand, there was more worry about the pressures facing that country plus its own economic woes. On the other hand, the regime expressed more confidence that the West was chicken and that time and tide was on Iran's side.
In 2008 we will be able to see if Tehran's drive for nuclear weapons continues without serious hindrance. Equally, it will be possible to assess whether President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is being weakened by his factional opponents--especially in the March parliamentary elections--or tightening his hold on power and holding to his reckless course....
...Israel prospers.
Despite outdated talk of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's weakness, he used 2007 to rebuild his authority. Especially interesting, Israel's economic growth has been impressive; unemployment fallen to all-time lows. Revolutionary enthusiasm and paper victories still thrill the Arab world and Iran but material gains continue to be what is important.
The demoralization of Lebanon.
Worried that it is being abandoned by the West, forces supporting the moderate Lebanese government began to wonder if in fact Iran, Syria, and Hizballah would be able to reestablish their control over the country. A key element is the identity of the country's next president. In 2008, it will be important to watch how power shifts in Beirut and whether the investigation of Syrian involvement in terrorism against Lebanese opposition figures leads to an international tribunal.
France changes course.
President Francois Sarkozy has moved France away from the nationalistic effort to undercut the United States and appease radical regimes. Sarkozy, however, has played footsie with Syria and Libya. The question for 2008: Will he implement pledges to get tougher and will French institutions follow him in changing course?
*Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Sarkozy Reaches Out to America, and to Its Jews
WASHINGTON — Reversing the anti-American stance of his many predecessors as president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy heralded a new and optimistic era of American-French relations yesterday on his first state visit here.
... Mr. Sarkozy said France is ready to defend the existence of Israel, but the existence of a Palestinian Arab "nation state" is essential to end the Jewish state's differences with the Palestinians. And while he said Iran should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons, he said he thought both Iran and Syria should be granted a nuclear energy capacity.
Mr. Sarkozy shrugged off France's reputation for anti-Semitism, declaring his full support for the security and integrity of the state of Israel, which, he said, should be guaranteed by international agreement....
...Mr. Sarkozy told of his efforts, while interior minister, to confront the poison of racial hatred, only to discover that anti-Semitic attacks were not even recorded by his department, which was responsible for law and order. "If we want to fight anti-Semitism, the first thing is to refuse to play it down," he said. "Racism, anti-Semitism, these are such hateful beasts that the first reaction of a democratic society is to deny it, to say it doesn't exist. But unless you agree on the diagnosis, then you cannot find the remedies to fight the source of the problem....
...Mr. Sarkozy denied that the French were intrinsically anti-Semitic. "France isn't an anti-Semitic country, but there is such a thing as anti-Semitism there. I want to acknowledge the fact," he said. "Once you have recognized and acknowledged the condition, you can take it on."
He pledged that France would guarantee the existence of the state of Israel, which he described as "a miracle." "Look at the history of the world," he said. The state of Israel "took millennia to arrive."
"It isn't because I am Jewish," he said. "By defending the Jews, you are defending everyone in a minority." He described the Holocaust as "this period marred by barbarism, when the 20th century returned to the Middle Ages.".....
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Olmert, Sarkozy see eye-to-eye
PARIS (AFP) - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Monday that France and Israel share "identical" views on the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme following talks in Paris with President Nicolas Sarkozy.
"I couldn't have heard on the Iranian issue things that could more fall in line with my expectations," Olmert told reporters after his 90-minute meeting with Sarkozy. The talks were "excellent and extremely frank and show an impressive level of similar views, even identical views, on parts of the issues on the agenda," said Olmert.
...He said that they did not discuss military action to stop Iran's nuclear programme, focusing instead on the need for tougher sanctions. "We focused on how to succeed on a wide range of actions that are not necessarily extremes," Olmert said, adding: "I believe we can succeed with them," referring to sanctions.
France has considerably toughened its position on Iran since Sarkozy was elected five months ago and has called for new sanctions. The UN Security Council plans to discuss the matter before the end of the year.
French presidential spokesman David Martinon echoed the Israeli prime minister's upbeat assessment of the meeting, the first between the two leaders since Sarkozy took office in May.
"Israel and France share the view that the Iranian nuclear programme must be implemented with the greatest transparency and for peaceful ends," Martinon said. "A nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable for France and for Israel," he said.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner angered Tehran last month when he said the world had to prepare for war over Iran's atomic drive, and has been pushing fellow European states to adopt their own sanctions.In his first major foreign policy speech, Sarkozy singled out Iran as the world's most dangerous problem and said a diplomatic push was needed to avoid "the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran."
...Olmert's visit could usher in a major shift as France appears poised to replace Britain as Israel's closest European ally, given [British Prime Minister] Brown's apparent attempt to distance himself from the fraught world of Middle East diplomacy.
Israel has also welcomed the tough lines Sarkozy has adopted against the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas and the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah militia, with which the Jewish state fought a devastating war last year....
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Chirac retires, dogged by scandal
FRENCH President Jacques Chirac will relinquish power to Nicolas Sarkozy in a ceremony at the Elysee Palace today [mazal tov!!!... to all of us - SL]....
...The outgoing President, best known internationally for his opposition to US "hyperpower" and sometimes dubbed "Chirac of Arabia", was scheduled to deliver his final televised address bidding farewell to the French people early this morning.
Despite some residual affection for Mr Chirac, who resumed French nuclear testing in the Pacific at the start of his first term, and led the boycott of the US-led invasion of Iraq, he is likely to be dogged into retirement by a corruption scandal.
The affair dates back to his days as Paris mayor... from 1977 to 1995 .... He has been accused of involvement in an illegal party funding racket. Under the "false jobs" scheme, fake posts were created for staff from his RPR party, who were paid out of Paris's mayoral coffers.
...Judicial leaks suggest Mr Chirac would be questioned by investigating judge Alain Philibeaux soon after his presidential immunity runs out on June 16.
.....Questions have been asked about why [Chirac and his wife], who own multiple properties in France, must live rent-free at the luxury apartment of their friends, the Hariri family. Assassinated former Lebanese opposition leader Rafik Hariri was close to Mr Chirac, but his inner circle have denied there is anything untoward in the retirement arrangements.
Mr Chirac's domestic political legacy is unimpressive, with unemployment still high at more than 8 per cent, and youth unemployment running at about 25 per cent or more in the poorer immigrant-dominated suburbs.
...The end of Mr Chirac's political career began in May 2005, when the referendum he championed for an EU constitution was rejected by the French.
On foreign policy, Mr Chirac had many enemies in US neoconservative and Israeli politics, owing to his staunch opposition to the Iraq war and sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Mr Chirac was often accused of being too close to Arab dictators and corrupt regimes, including Saddam Hussein's before the first Gulf War....
Monday, May 07, 2007
Out with the old, in with the 'Jew'
...Sarkozy, whose father is Hungarian, has been something of an adopted son here (especially in Netanya) due to his Jewish background: His mother had a Jewish father. Sarko, as his supporters call him, has openly and repeatedly called himself a friend of Israel in good times and in bad. While he remains politically neutral regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he has drawn criticism from many for his views and positions on Israel, notably from extreme right-winger Jean-Marie Le Pen, who said during the Second Lebanon War that while the land of the cedars was under attack, Sarkozy was declaring that he was a supporter of Israel.
When Sarkozy gave his foreign policy address to the international media in early March, he acknowledged the stagnation between Israel and the Palestinians regarding talks, and said Israel must make necessary concessions to permit Palestinians to establish a viable state. But he also said it must be made perfectly clear to the Palestinian Authority that nothing can justify violence. Because of his views on Iran, anti-Semitism and global terrorism, he has been dubbed a no-nonsense politician when it comes to security issues.
In France, Sarkozy is seen by many as an "Atlantist" - someone who has more pro-American views than the average Frenchman feels comfortable with. While Sarkozy has taken some bruises from his political opponents on that front, it has given him a credibility on the international stage, especially in the United Nations Security Council, that his predecessor Jacques Chirac forfeited years ago by pushing forward with France's weapons-for-oil policy with the Arab states. Although France has long-standing ties with countries such as Lebanon and Algeria, Sarkozy is hoping to revolutionize its role from double-dealer to that of moderator and is concerned with only two things in Lebanon - political autonomy and the disarmament of Hizbullah.
Perhaps Sarkozy's most controversial undertaking is his blockage of Turkish membership in the European Union. He believes that if Turkey were admitted, Lebanon and Israel would have to be as well.
In between rounds of the presidential elections, Sarkozy discussed why he believes a two-state solution is in the best interest of Israel, UNIFIL and Hizbullah, the Iranian threat and his general outlook on French and Mediterranean politics in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post's French Edition.
In Europe and elsewhere, you have the image of a man who is more aligned with the Right on issues of security and liberalism, while being pro-Israeli and pro-American, which greatly pleases Franco-Israelis, but to a lesser extent the European Left. Do you feel this is a just portrayal?
It looks like you didn't leave anything out. To begin, there is a complete list of traits and caricatures generally used by those who are not very well-intentioned toward me. This perception is neither accurate nor just. I wanted to be the candidate representing the republican Right, liberated from the Left, to be a rightist based on values - work, authority, the priority of the victim over the aggressor, effort, merit, the rejection of a welfare mentality, [promoting] egalitarianism and building equality by starting from the bottom. That makes me the hard Right?
I worked hard in a ministerial capacity to combat and to curb an insecurity that literally exploded under the leftist government of Lionel Jospin. I got significant results, and I estimate that they will be consolidated in the future by an improvement in the mechanisms which dictate the penal system, and in particular to better fight against the recidivist impulses of minors who repeat their crimes. This makes me a man of security matters?
Economically, I am first and foremost a pragmatist. I believe in free economy. I believe in a market economy. But I also know that the market by itself cannot do everything, and cannot rectify everything on its own either. I believe in political volunteerism when it comes to industrial and technological matters, and I do not regret making the decision to intervene to save [French transportation manufacturer] Alstom, an enterprise which once again became flourishing. This makes me a liberal?
I am viscerally attached to the independence of France and Europe vis- -vis whatever forces there may be, and I deplore that the European Union does not take advantage of its unity, of its realism and autonomy in its economic and commercial relations with the other regions of the world, as it does with foreign policy or defense. I do not see an incompatibility between recognition of the US as a great democracy with which we have many common values and indissoluble historic ties. Moreover, I do not see the incompatibility between the rights of Palestinians to create a viable state and the consideration of the security of the State of Israel as non-negotiable. That makes me an "Atlantist," pro-Israeli and pro-American?
These analogies, at the least, lack the most elementary subtlety. The truth of the matter is that those who say that are anti-Israeli and anti-American themselves. They are trying to denigrate the others.
How do you see future dialogue between the government of France and the Muslim Council?
I was one of the driving forces behind the creation of the CFCM [Conseil Francais du Culte Musulman], which represents the Muslims of France, and its 25 regional branches. Why? Because I prefer the Islam of France to be in keeping with the values and rules of our republic, rather than an Islam that is subjected to foreign influences.
The CFCM gathers together the different Muslim schools of thought and allows for internal dialogue, and of course, also with the help of the public and other components of French society. Definitively, the CFCM is responsible for the construction of mosques, the burial of Muslims and the maintenance of their cemeteries, the handling of religious holidays, the nomination of chaplains in hospitals, schools and prisons, but also the appointment of imams. The objective of the CFCM since its creation in 2003 is for me both positive and encouraging. However, I am convinced that no future government, whichever government it may be, will challenge its existence and its intentions.
Security and immigration are the two fields which you worked on the most while you were interior minister. What do you think of the European directive which includes both an exchange between the various intelligence services in Europe and the harmonization of laws on illegal immigrants?
You are no doubt alluding to the proposed directive concerning the return [to their countries of origin] of immigrants in irregular situations. The European Commission said more cooperation with the procedure to send them back is necessary. This is undeniably a good thing, but on the condition that the European states conserve some leeway to act on their own.
Concerning information sharing by the different intelligence services in Europe, I believe it to be indispensable whether for combating illegal immigration, notably in the way the information system for visas will be conducted in the future, or against the network of organized crime, which prospers by exploiting misery and discrimination. More importantly, I hope the European states can go further in the future with respect to coordinating their policies on immigration, asylum and border control. In my capacity as interior minister, I had the opportunity to submit these kinds of proposals to our partners.
You have declared several times that you would like to revise the secularity laws of 1905 regarding church-state relations. How do you think they should be modified?
There was never a question of me touching the basic principles of the laws of 1905. This law is not a law of prohibition, but a clarification of the relations between the state and the different religions inside it. It is a law of tolerance which assures the liberty and neutrality of the state - in other words the equality of all faiths.
I simply hoped that there would be a reflection on the necessity to take into consideration a new reality - that the Muslim religion, which has become the second religion of France behind Catholicism, was virtually nonexistent in our territory in 1905. I recall that this law was amended 13 times. A report by experts which was given to me last September recommended that I draw up the legislation to give the boroughs the possibility, when properly set up, to aid the cultural investments if necessary.
Without a doubt, if this question merits study, it is because it is not only the faithful of certain religions who recently appeared in our territory who face difficulties in practicing their faith.
I do not think, however, that it would be a good thing to legislate without previously obtaining a very broad consensus. It seems to me that before legislating on these delicate questions, the sanction of a large majority of Frenchmen and of the different cultural communities is indispensable.
You are aware that the question of Lebanon preoccupies us greatly because we are neighboring countries. In Lebanon, European soldiers have conformed to the UN resolution for a multilateral force along the border with Israel. Certain reports from the UN signal the rearmament of Hizbullah. Do you think that the UNIFIL mission must be reworked to be efficient?
UNIFIL 2, which was established by Security Council Resolution 1701 to ensure a durable cease-fire between Israel and the various Lebanese factions, was universally warmly welcomed because France, at the initiative of Jacques Chirac, insisted that it be given a clear and strong mandate with predefined rules of engagement.
For the most part, the balance in the region is still fragile. The disarmament of the militias, in particular, which is fundamental for stability, must remain a major preoccupation for the Lebanese government. It is up to UNIFIL 2 to gather the arms caches left by the militias and to prevent the rearmament of some of them to ensure true control of the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Hopefully the Lebanese political process can restart, the Lebanese can retake their destiny into their own hands and find the path toward internal dialogue. Turning the militias' arms caches over to the legitimate Lebanese authorities would be the best guarantee of a return of a durable peace.
What do you think about the 2002 Saudi peace plan and, more importantly, the return of refugees as an obligatory condition?
As you know, since 2002 France has supported the Saudi initiative, as it has supported the efforts of all those who have searched for a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
I consider this initiative, recently relaunched at the Riyadh summit, as constructive. If we want peace and stability, it is best to start talking, in particular among neighbors. Only a negotiated solution will break the impasse, and therefore the refugees are one element.
That being said, I am concerned that there be a balance between the rights of Israel to security and recognition by its neighbors and the right of Palestinians to a state. I deeply believe in this balance. Only if Israel is guaranteed that its existence will not be threatened and the Palestinians are allowed to form a viable state can we achieve a durable and viable solution.
Do you think Israel's security barrier falls under the protection of Article 51 of the UN Charter, which recognizes the right of legitimate defense against terrorist attacks? Do you believe the EU and France should place Hizbullah on their lists of terrorist organizations?
You know that I defend the right of Israel to protect itself against external aggression, particularly when it takes the form of blind and cowardly acts of terrorism. But the measures taken must not condemn the search for a negotiated peace settlement. They must be appropriate and proportional.
Concerning Hizbullah, I understand that we can ask ourselves this question, given its attitude and the means it resorts to. However I am not convinced that such a debate is useful in the current Lebanese context, where appeasement is sought out.
I can only support the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah. If Hizbullah is really the political party it claims to be, let it truly behave as such and finally lay down its arms.
The Iranian threat is becoming more imminent. Certain countries like France, Spain and Italy seem to be more in favor of dialogue than other members of the international community. What is your position on the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
I want to be clear on Iran. It is unacceptable and dangerous that Iran pursues a militarily nuclear capability. Iran has the opportunity to reestablish confidence concerning the nature of its nuclear activities. That is what the UN Security Council has signaled to Teheran by unanimously voting for Resolution 1737. The important thing in this crisis is to maintain the firmness and the unity of the international community and its determination to contain the risks of proliferation. This European policy of firmness and of dialogue, which can be traced back to 2003, is today shared by all permanent members of the Security Council and will define my actions if elected.
With regard to Mr. Ahmadinejad, I remind you of what I have already said about his attitudes and positions. His call for the destruction of Israel and denial of the reality of the Shoah are totally inadmissible and irresponsible. I am actually not even sure these views are shared by a majority of Iranians, far from it.
You launched the idea of a Mediterranean Union as an alternative to admitting Turkey as a permanent member of the EU. Do you have a Mediterranean policy?
Turkey is a great country and a great ally for which I have much respect. If I am against its admission to the EU, it is not because I am against Turkey, but because I am for a "traditional" Europe. It seems to me that there is a fundamental contradiction between the admission of Turkey and the project of a more integrated Europe.
The EU cannot have infinite borders, and it seems to me that for reasons of history, geography and culture, Turkey has no place inside of these borders. I find hard to accept an EU which extends to the borders of Syria and Iraq.
I would also like to remind you that the inclusion of Turkey was envisioned about 45 years ago, and at the time, it was into a common market, a customs union, but not into a political union.
I therefore seek the establishment of a strategic partnership, economic as well as cultural, with Turkey and other states circling the Mediterranean. This is the basis of the Euro-Mediterranean union that I proposed. Europe cannot turn its back on the Mediterranean, which is a component of its identity.
Analysis: French Leader Is U.S. Friendly
PARIS -- Au revoir, Jacques Chirac, and bonjour to a new U.S.-friendly French president who identifies with the American dream and happily affirms that the French like burgers, Madonna and Miami Vice.
...But Sarkozy's gaze in his first months in office will be directed more at home than across the Atlantic.French voters didn't elect the conservative because he promises a warmer new approach to the often troubled yet also deeply rooted relationship between France and the United States. In fact, Sarkozy's America-friendly inclination was seen more as an electoral liability than an advantage.
The new president's priorities will be to get France's sluggish economy and Europe's stalled process of integration moving forward again.
With the exception of Europe - a national obsession in France, which sees itself as a natural leader of the continent - foreign affairs got scant attention in the long presidential campaign that was dominated by worries over jobs, the economy and how to compete against rising powers like China.
That means not much is known about how President Sarkozy will lead France on the world stage _ even though foreign affairs are a major part of his new job, an area where Chirac had considerable expertise and where he often seemed more at ease than with domestic issues.
As Chirac's minister for the interior and, in 2004, for finance, Sarkozy worked with governments in Europe and Africa to combat illegal immigration and terrorism, represented France at the International Monetary Fund, and irritated Berlin by protecting the French engineering giant Alstom SA from the advances of Germany rival Siemens AG.
But it is unknown how Sarkozy would cope in a major international crisis.
"He's never done any serious, hands-on broad spectrum diplomacy," notes Francois Heisbourg, a leading French foreign and strategic affairs expert.
The learning curve for Sarkozy promises to be steep, and Iran will be a foremost challenge requiring immediate attention. Within days of Sarkozy's inauguration, which must take place before May 17, the international community could ratchet up sanctions against the regime in Tehran if it continues to refuse to suspend its nuclear program. France under Sarkozy can be expected to go along. He describes Iranian leaders as "extremely dangerous."...
...Sarkozy's election could improve chances of unblocking the paralysis that has gripped the European Union since 2005, when French and Dutch voters blocked greater integration. Those votes were giant setbacks for pro-Europeans like Sarkozy who want the 27-nation bloc to become a veritable player on the world stage, with coherent policies to guarantee its energy supplies, to regulate immigration from Africa, and to protect European workers from the most cut-throat excesses of globalization.
He promises to be a tough customer in global trade talks, saying Europe should only open its markets to those that open theirs. He wants an EU-wide tax on goods from countries - he has singled out China - that have not agreed to cap their greenhouse gas emissions.
And at the World Trade Organization, "I want reciprocity and I do not want anyone to tell me that we don't have the right to do what the Americans do," he says. "We created Europe to act, not to submit," he also says.
Sarkozy says German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the British and Spanish prime ministers, Tony Blair and Jose Luis Rodrigues Zapatero, and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso have all given him a thumbs-up to his proposal that the bloc adopt a new treaty to unblock EU decision-making and give it an elected president.
But, ultimately, Sarkozy could make his greatest impact abroad, or at least in its region, by setting France on its feet again. By some measures, France has become the sick man of Europe. Only Poland and Slovakia have worse unemployment rates than France. Its economic growth rate is one of Europe's slowest - only Italy and Portugal did worse last year than France's 2.1 percent.
Reforming France and solving such problems, notes Heisbourg, "will have a lot more influence than any amount of foreign policy gesturing."
___
Chief of Bureau John Leicester has reported on France since 2002.
French Champagne is back on the menu
Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy has won the hotly-contested French presidential election, according to early results.
EARLY RESULTS (73% OF VOTES COUNTED)
- Nicolas Sarkozy:
- 53.3% Segolene Royal: 46.7%
- Turnout: 84.8%
- Spoiled ballots: 3.75%
- Source: French Interior Ministry
Friendship for US
Mr Sarkozy's supporters have gathered for an open-air concert in the Place de la Concorde, which is expected to continue until the early hours.
....He said the US could count on France's friendship, but urged Washington to take a lead in the fight against climate change.
He also said he believed deeply in European integration, but appealed to France's partners to understand the importance of social protection.
"[Voters] have chosen to break with the habits and the ideals of the past so I will rehabilitate work, authority, morality, respect, merit!" he said. After he finished speaking at his party headquarters, jubilant supporters sang a rousing rendition of the French national anthem.
....Mr Sarkozy has promised to try to reform France to face the challenges of the 21st century, with putting the nation back to work at the top of his agenda. He has pledged to bring unemployment down from 8.3% to below 5% by 2012.
He is also expected to bring forward policies to cut taxes and keep trains running during strikes, in the first 100 days after he takes office on 17 May.
....French pundits greeted the strong turnout as a victory for French democracy....
Monday, April 23, 2007
Run-off for President turns into classic Right-Left duel
Voters sent Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal into the run-off for the French presidency yesterday, confounding the hopes of their centrist and far-right challengers in the most closely contested campaign for decades.
Mr Sarkozy, 52, who is promising radical reform to haul France out of stagnation, took 31 per cent of the votes, and Ms Royal, 53, whose unorthodox campaign unsettled many on the Left, won solid endorsement from her own camp with nearly 26 per cent.
François Bayrou, 55, the centrist who had threatened to overtake Ms Royal, earned just over 18 per cent — a strong score for a third candidate but a blow for his attempt to forge a “third-way” revolution in French politics.
The biggest disappointment was suffered by Jean-Marie Le Pen, 78, the veteran National Front leader, who scored only about 11 per cent [my biggest "disappointment" was that he scored anything at all - SL]. This was far below the 17 per cent that took him into the second round in 2002, eliminating the Socialist candidate.
...As the unsuccessful candidates from the Far Left called on their voters to support Ms Royal, Mr Sarkozy made his first play for the centrist voters who were deterred by his rightwing rhetoric and backed Mr Bayrou. Eight million people voted for him but it remains unclear which way they will swing in the run-off. To the cheers of supporters in his Paris headquarters, Mr Sarkozy promised “to rally the French people around a new French dream”.
...The winner of the run-off will succeed President Chirac, who leaves the Elysée Palace in mid-May after 12 years in office. The results of various polls released last night suggested that Mr Sarkozy would win the May 6 ballot with between 52 and 54 per cent of the vote against 46 to 48 per cent for Ms Royal....