From FoxNews.com, September 20, 2012, by Edward Klein*:
[Iran is] six months away from being about 90 percent of having the rich uranium for an atom bomb. I think that you have to place that red line before them now, before it’s too late.
—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to David Gregory on NBC’s "Meet the Press"
One of the most enduring myths about Barack Obama is that he’s been a better foreign policy president than a domestic one. Given his feeble record at home, that isn’t saying much. And now, after the wholesale collapse of his “soft diplomacy” throughout the Muslim world, that myth has finally been shattered.
Indeed, when it comes to foreign policy, it’s amateur hour in the White House. This rank amateurism was on full display in the confusing and contradictory manner with which Obama treated the two most important leaders in the Middle East— Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu of Israel and Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president of Egypt.
The current Islamic rage against America began in Egypt, and the American embassy in Cairo has been under constant assault by Morsi’s radical Islamist political partners. So how did Obama react? He agreed to reward Morsi with a private meeting at the United Nations General Assembly later this month, but flatly turned down a request for a get-together with America’s chief ally in the region, Netanyahu.
Netanyahu has made no secret of the fact that he doesn’t trust Obama, and the president has been equally candid that he despises the outspoken Netanyahu. The White House didn’t even try to come up with a valid excuse for the president’s snub of Netanyahu. It said that the president would arrive in New York for the UN on Monday, September 24 and depart on Tuesday, September 25, and Netanyahu wouldn’t arrive in New York until later in the week. But that explanation didn’t wash, because Netanyahu offered to go to Washington if New York wasn’t convenient.
With less than two months remaining in the presidential campaign, Obama was in no mood to be lectured in public by Netanyahu about America’s ineffectual approach to stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. But according to my sources in Jerusalem and Washington, the real reason Obama gave Netanyahu the brush off, was political, not diplomatic.
David Axelrod and his Chicago campaign team reckoned that if Obama agreed to meet with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister would ...to appear even-handed in the American presidential race ...meet with Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. The last thing the Axelrod gang wanted to see were side-by-side front-page photos of Bibi’s chilly reception at the White House contrasted with his warm embrace by Romney. Netanyahu and Romney have a close relationship that dates back to their work together at the Boston Consulting Group in the mid-1970s. That friendship has been cemented by Romney’s trips to Israel, where he has dined with Netanyahu and his wife, and by the friends they have in common both in Israel and the United States....
Jews represent only 4 percent of the population in Florida, but because they vote at a disproportionately higher rate than other groups, they account for 7 to 8 percent of the total vote. Obama got 78 percent of that vote in 2008. Current polls put him at 68 percent or lower among Jews in Florida. If Obama's margin is reduced by 10 percentage points, that would translate to 85,000 lost votes. In a close election, the Jewish vote could make a difference in who wins Florida— and the presidential election—and Obama would have no one to blame but himself.
*Edward Klein is the former editor in chief of The New York Times Magazine. His latest book is "The Amateur: Barack Obama in the White House." (Regnery 2012)
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Appeasement and the Lessons of History
From Isi Leibler, September 19, 2012:
There is an iron law in history. Appeasing xenophobic movements or totalitarian regimes invariably lead to disaster, encouraging escalating demands to levels which either culminate with surrender or make armed conflict inevitable.
There is an iron law in history. Appeasing xenophobic movements or totalitarian regimes invariably lead to disaster, encouraging escalating demands to levels which either culminate with surrender or make armed conflict inevitable.
Had Chamberlain not continued appeasing the
Nazis, we may have avoided World War II or at least been better prepared and
substantially reduced casualties.
President Reagan, besmirched by liberals as a
warmonger, assumed a hardline position against Soviet expansionism which led to
the collapse of the Evil Empire.
His philosophy, reflected in the following
extracts from the 1964 speech (click here to listen) which
launched his political career, resonates eerily with our current situation:
“There is no argument over the choice between
peace and war, but there is one guaranteed way you can have peace – and you can
have it in the next second – surrender.
Every lesson in history tells us that the
greatest risk lies in appeasement, and this is the specter our well-meaning
liberal friends refuse to face – that the policy of accommodation is
appeasement, and it gives no choice between peace and war, only between fight
and surrender. If we continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat,
then eventually we have to face the final demand – the ultimatum. And what
then?... You and I know and do not believe that life is so dear and peace so
sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery. If nothing in life
is worth dying for, when did this begin – just in the face of this enemy? Or
should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in slavery under the
pharaohs?...
The martyrs of history were not fools, and
our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of the Nazis did not
die in vain. Where then, is the road to peace? It is a simple answer. You and I
have the courage to say to our enemies “there is a price we will not pay”,
“there is a point beyond which they must not advance”… We will preserve for our
children this, the last best hope of man on Earth, or we will sentence them to
take the last step into a thousand years of darkness.”
Thirty three years ago, when the Iranians invaded
the US Embassy and kidnapped diplomats, President Jimmy Carter, instead of
confronting the Ayatollah regime, “reached out” and sought to “engage” it. All
he achieved was to embolden the radicals and intensify the humiliation of the
US, ultimately costing him the presidency.
Now President Obama and his acolytes are
repeating the same mistakes. His first international initiative was to address
a gathering in Cairo which included members of the then illegal Moslem
Brotherhood. He undertook to reverse the “harsh” approach of his predecessors
by reaching out and engaging all levels of the Moslem world. To further placate
the Islamists, he diplomatically distanced the US from Israel.
When the Iranian Ayatollah regime brutally suppressed
the people during the Green Revolution, Obama remained silent. He sided with
the “democratic” Islamic street mob against Mubarak, a long-standing US ally,
and then sought to “engage” with the ruling Moslem Brotherhood regime which is
far more repressive than its authoritarian predecessor.
On the11th anniversary of 9/11, on the
pretext of outrage against an obscure and primitive anti-Muslim film which
“insulted the Prophet”, radical Muslims launched a global campaign to inflame
mobs throughout the Islamic world to engage in riots against US embassies.
The assault on the US embassy in Libya resulted
in the brutal murder of four US diplomats including the US ambassador who was
tortured whilst the US flag was substituted by the black flag of al-Qaeda.
The initial US response was to grovel and
repeatedly condemn the anti-Muslim film (in which it had no involvement) rather
than the riots, the slaughter of the innocents and failure of governments to
provide adequate protection to their embassies.
This kowtowing to Moslem violence has precedents
– the 1989 Salmon Rushdie outrage, the riots reacting to the Danish cartoons of
the Prophet Mohammed, the killings following allegations of US troops
desecrating Korans and similar incidents used to exploit the primitive Islamic
street.
Despite the fact that the US provides Egypt with
$2 billion of aid annually, the police stood idly whilst the Cairo US embassy
was attacked by mobs chanting “we are all Osama”.
President Mohamed Morsi, who prior to being
elected had denied that al Qaeda was responsible for 9/11, waited 24 hours
before making a mealy-mouthed criticism of the violence (on Facebook!). He also
warned of future reprisals if “insults to the Prophet” were not suppressed. In
addition, the ruling Moslem Brotherhood called for more protests and had the
gall to demand further US apologies.
Morsi will soon be hosted in Washington by Obama.
He intends to request the president to release Osama bin Laden’s former ally,
Sheikh Omar abd al-Rahman, serving a life sentence in prison for conspiring to
blow up the World Trade Center.
By failing to adequately condemn Morsi’s tepid
response to the embassy outrage or postpone his visit, Obama is signaling
Islamic radicals that employing violence and killings will succeed in intimidating
infidels. As it is, the Obama administration even prohibits use of terms like
“Islamic terrorism”.
The Islamists are also seeking to impose on us
laws which would criminalize criticism of Islam. As a Jew whose people have
suffered for 2000 years from vile defamation and obscene lies and blood libels,
I am not a devotee of the US First Amendment which provides, that unlimited
freedom of expression is sacrosanct unless it engenders immediate violence. I
believe that carefully drafted legislation should provide protection for groups
or individuals against demonstrable lies which generate incitement to hatred
and racism. This applies in many European countries and neither undermines
democracy nor meaningfully curtails freedom of expression.
However, it would be outrageous to extend this to
sharia validated blasphemy laws which would deny the right to expose criminal
behavior implemented in the name of Islam. We would be prohibited from
condemning capital punishment for the conversion of Moslems to other faiths,
stoning adulterers to death, employing female circumcision, cutting off limbs
from thieves, public floggings etc.
We would also be forbidden from exposing
state-sponsored denial of freedom of religion, the desecration of churches and
synagogues, pogroms against Christians, Copts and Jews – all of which are daily
occurrences in many Islamic countries.
Nor would these sharia endorsed laws inhibit
Islamic state-sponsored anti-Semitism or prohibit current demonic Arab TV
dramas of lurid
Jewish stereotypes employing the blood of Moslem children to bake Matzoth on
Passover (click here to view). Not to mention imams in mosques repeatedly depicting
Jews as descendants of apes and pigs and urging the faithful to murder them (click
here to view).
Today, the forces of Islamic extremism are
testing our resolve to stand up and resist their efforts to globally extend
their evil totalitarian ideology.
If we continue burying our heads in the sand and
minimizing the threat emanating from these barbaric reincarnations of the Dark
Ages, we will be paving the way for our children to inherit a world which has
reversed the great advances of Western civilization especially the
Judeo-Christian heritage.
Iran on brink...
From Reuters, Sep 16, 2012, by Matt Spetalnick and Dan Williams in WASHINGTON and JERUSALEM:
WASHINGTON/JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran was just six to seven months
away from the brink of being able to build a nuclear bomb, adding urgency to his
demand that President Barack Obama set a "red line" for Tehran...
Taking to the television airwaves to make his case directly to the American public, Netanyahu said that by mid-2013 Iran would be "90 percent of the way" toward enough enriched uranium for a weapon. He again urged the United States to spell out limits that Tehran must not cross if it is to avoid military action - something Obama has refused to do.
"You have to place that red line before them now, before it's too late," Netanyahu said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program, adding that such a U.S. move could reduce the chances of having to attack Iran's nuclear sites....
It was the clearest marker Netanyahu has laid down so far on why he has become so strident in his push for Washington to confront Tehran with a strict ultimatum....
..."It's the same fanaticism that you see storming your embassies today. You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?" Netanyahu asked in the NBC interview, in a clear emotional appeal to Americans still reeling from the [violent Islamist] protests ....
'IN THE RED ZONE'
Speaking via satellite from Jerusalem, Netanyahu argued that a credible U.S. ultimatum was needed to curb Iran, which denies it is seeking a nuclear bomb.
"They're in the ‘red zone,'" Netanyahu said, using an American football metaphor for when a team is close to scoring a touchdown. "You can't let them cross that goal line."
Susan Rice, Obama's U.N. envoy, offered no sign that Obama - who has asked Netanyahu to hold off on any strike on Iran's nuclear sites to give sanctions and diplomacy time to work - intended to soften his resistance to red lines.
"We will take no option off the table to ensure that (Iran) does not acquire a nuclear weapon, including a military option," Rice told "Meet the Press," reiterating Obama's longstanding position but insisting "they are not there yet."
Israeli leaders, who see Iran's nuclear advances as a looming threat, have made clear they are operating on a far tighter window than the United States, with a superpower's mighty conventional arsenal at its disposal.
Asked whether Israel was closer to acting on its own, Netanyahu said: "We always reserve the right to act. But I think that if we are able to coordinate together a common position, we increase the chances that neither one of us will have to act."
Obama, seeking re-election in November, has faced criticism from Republican rival Mitt Romney that the president is being too tough with Israel and not tough enough with Iran.
But Netanyahu took a more neutral posture on the election, denied he was meddling in U.S. politics in support of fellow conservative Romney and distanced himself from the Republican's accusation Obama was "throwing Israeli under the bus."
Netanyahu's sharpened rhetoric in recent days had stoked speculation that Israel might attack Iran before the U.S. election, believing that Obama would give it military help and not risk alienating pro-Israeli voters....
He said he appreciated Obama's assurances Iran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. But Netanyahu, whose "red line" demands have infuriated U.S. officials, made clear that was not enough. "I think a red line, in this case, works to reduce the chances of the need for military action," he said.
MOVING RAPIDLY
In his most specific comments on Iran's nuclear work, Netanyahu told CNN: "They're moving very rapidly to completing the enrichment of the uranium that they need to produce a nuclear bomb. In six months or so they'll be 90 percent of the way there."
He appeared to be referring to Iran's enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity, a level it says is required for medical isotopes but which also is close to bomb-fuel grade. According to an August report by U.N. inspectors, Iran has stockpiled 91.4 kg of the 20 percent material.
Experts say about 200-250 kg (440-550 pounds) would be the minimum required to enrich further into enough material for a bomb, a threshold Iran could potentially reach soon by producing roughly 15 kg (33 pounds) a month, a rate that could be speeded up if it activates new uranium centrifuges.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has warned that Iran may be approaching a "zone of immunity" in which Israeli bombs would be unable to penetrate buried facilities. The United States has more potent weapons that could do the job.
Israel's concern is that Iran be prevented from reaching nuclear weapons capability, not just from developing an actual device, and they worry time is running out. Israel is widely believed to possess the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal.
Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor told Israel Radio the United States should not wait for Iran to decide on building a bomb before it considers military action.
Netanyahu did not repeat his harsh comments of last week that Washington had lost any "moral right" to restrain Israel because it had refused to put strict U.S. limits on Tehran....
Taking to the television airwaves to make his case directly to the American public, Netanyahu said that by mid-2013 Iran would be "90 percent of the way" toward enough enriched uranium for a weapon. He again urged the United States to spell out limits that Tehran must not cross if it is to avoid military action - something Obama has refused to do.
"You have to place that red line before them now, before it's too late," Netanyahu said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program, adding that such a U.S. move could reduce the chances of having to attack Iran's nuclear sites....
It was the clearest marker Netanyahu has laid down so far on why he has become so strident in his push for Washington to confront Tehran with a strict ultimatum....
..."It's the same fanaticism that you see storming your embassies today. You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?" Netanyahu asked in the NBC interview, in a clear emotional appeal to Americans still reeling from the [violent Islamist] protests ....
'IN THE RED ZONE'
Speaking via satellite from Jerusalem, Netanyahu argued that a credible U.S. ultimatum was needed to curb Iran, which denies it is seeking a nuclear bomb.
"They're in the ‘red zone,'" Netanyahu said, using an American football metaphor for when a team is close to scoring a touchdown. "You can't let them cross that goal line."
Susan Rice, Obama's U.N. envoy, offered no sign that Obama - who has asked Netanyahu to hold off on any strike on Iran's nuclear sites to give sanctions and diplomacy time to work - intended to soften his resistance to red lines.
"We will take no option off the table to ensure that (Iran) does not acquire a nuclear weapon, including a military option," Rice told "Meet the Press," reiterating Obama's longstanding position but insisting "they are not there yet."
Israeli leaders, who see Iran's nuclear advances as a looming threat, have made clear they are operating on a far tighter window than the United States, with a superpower's mighty conventional arsenal at its disposal.
Asked whether Israel was closer to acting on its own, Netanyahu said: "We always reserve the right to act. But I think that if we are able to coordinate together a common position, we increase the chances that neither one of us will have to act."
Obama, seeking re-election in November, has faced criticism from Republican rival Mitt Romney that the president is being too tough with Israel and not tough enough with Iran.
But Netanyahu took a more neutral posture on the election, denied he was meddling in U.S. politics in support of fellow conservative Romney and distanced himself from the Republican's accusation Obama was "throwing Israeli under the bus."
Netanyahu's sharpened rhetoric in recent days had stoked speculation that Israel might attack Iran before the U.S. election, believing that Obama would give it military help and not risk alienating pro-Israeli voters....
He said he appreciated Obama's assurances Iran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. But Netanyahu, whose "red line" demands have infuriated U.S. officials, made clear that was not enough. "I think a red line, in this case, works to reduce the chances of the need for military action," he said.
MOVING RAPIDLY
In his most specific comments on Iran's nuclear work, Netanyahu told CNN: "They're moving very rapidly to completing the enrichment of the uranium that they need to produce a nuclear bomb. In six months or so they'll be 90 percent of the way there."
He appeared to be referring to Iran's enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity, a level it says is required for medical isotopes but which also is close to bomb-fuel grade. According to an August report by U.N. inspectors, Iran has stockpiled 91.4 kg of the 20 percent material.
Experts say about 200-250 kg (440-550 pounds) would be the minimum required to enrich further into enough material for a bomb, a threshold Iran could potentially reach soon by producing roughly 15 kg (33 pounds) a month, a rate that could be speeded up if it activates new uranium centrifuges.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has warned that Iran may be approaching a "zone of immunity" in which Israeli bombs would be unable to penetrate buried facilities. The United States has more potent weapons that could do the job.
Israel's concern is that Iran be prevented from reaching nuclear weapons capability, not just from developing an actual device, and they worry time is running out. Israel is widely believed to possess the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal.
Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor told Israel Radio the United States should not wait for Iran to decide on building a bomb before it considers military action.
Netanyahu did not repeat his harsh comments of last week that Washington had lost any "moral right" to restrain Israel because it had refused to put strict U.S. limits on Tehran....
International Wargames in the Gulf
From AFP, 18 Sept 2012, by Lara Sukhtian in DUBAI:
Naval forces from more than 30 countries were on Monday engaged in a massive minesweeping exercise in the Gulf, US officials said, amid Iranian threats to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The US-led International Mine Countermeasures Exercise (IMCMEX), the first of its kind in the Middle East, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran over the Islamic republic's controversial nuclear programme.
The exercise kicked off on Sunday, the same day as the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned of retaliation against the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and nearby US bases if his country is attacked and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Tehran is "90 percent" toward having a nuclear bomb...
... the anti-mine manoeuvres are designed to counter Iran's escalating threats to block the strategic straits.
This is "a message to all parties in the region: to the allies and Iran, that the US is ready to defend their common interests, keep the straits and maritime routes open and respond to any attacks against its bases in the region" said Riad Kahwaji, of the Institute for near East and Gulf military analysis in Dubai.
More than 500 ships, 60 percent of which are energy carriers, pass through the Straits every week, a strategic chokepoint that connects the Arabian Gulf, and some of the world's top oil producing nations to the rest of the world.
"This is a vital region where sea lanes and resources and international interests all intersect," said [Lieutenant Greg Raelson of the US Fifth fleet in Bahrain].
"Defending these interests against a sea mine attack is really a core mission of navy mine warfare... and this exercise is an effort to decrease the international threat of mining and to enhance our combined capabilities to provide long-term stability and security."
The anti-mine manoeuvres will last through September 27 and involve more than 30 nations including the United States, Britain, Japan, France, Yemen and Jordan.
Raelson said no manoeuvres "at all" will take place in the actual Strait of Hormuz, adding that a variety of anti-mine techniques will be practised, including "mine-hunting operations, helicopter mine countermeasures operations, dive operations, small boat exercises and international cross platform refuelling training."
General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Iranian Guards, told a news conference in Tehran on Sunday that the strait would be a legitimate target for Iran should it be attacked.
Jafari also suggested that US military bases -- the two largest in Bahrain and Qatar -- would be fair game for retaliation by Iran or proxy forces.
The US also has several military bases in Kuwait and a military presence in the United Arab Emirates....
From HazardEx, 17 September 2012:
Three US Carrier strike groups, each headed by a Nimitz class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and vessels from 25 other nations will take part in wargames in the Gulf from September 17 for a total of 12 days.
The wargames are designed to counter any Iranian attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping in the event of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
The Telegraph says that the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is with the British helicopter carrier Illustrious on exercise in the eastern Mediterranean, and both could race to the Gulf at short notice. The latest Royal Navy destroyer Diamond is already in the Gulf with four minesweepers to take part in the wargames. They will develop tactics on how to breach any Iranian blockade of the straits and practice counter-mining drills.
Russia Today adds that a fourth US carrier strike group, based in Guam in the Pacific, could also be in the Gulf in a relatively short time.
A blockade of the straits could have a catastrophic effect on economies around the world, many of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf. Every day around 18 million barrels of oil, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s petroleum traded by sea, go through the straits.
Defence sources say that although Iran’s capability may not be technologically sophisticated, it will try to attack NATO and allied vessels using mini-subs, fast attack boats and shore-based anti-ship missiles. An important element of its area-denial strategy will be to lay mines in the shipping lanes used by oil tankers.
Next month, Iran will stage massive military manoeuvres of its own. The exercise is being showcased as the biggest air defence war game in the Islamic Republic’s history, and will be its most visible response yet to the prospect of an Israeli military strike. Using surface-to-air missiles, unmanned drones and state-of-the-art radar, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and air force will combine to test the defences of 3,600 sensitive locations throughout the country, including oil refineries and uranium enrichment facilities.
President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on September 17 to discuss the Iranian crisis. Many within the Obama administration believe that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before the US presidential elections in November.
Mr Netanyahu signalled recently that the time for a negotiated settlement had run out. He said: “The world tells Israel 'Wait, there’s still time.’ And I say, 'Wait for what? Wait until when?’ “Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps recently said that “Any enemies' plots” would be foiled and a heavy price exacted, adding: “We determine the rules of military conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz.”
But Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, warned that Iranian attempts to exercise control over the straits would be met with force.
He said: “The Iranians need to understand that the United States and the international community are going to hold them directly responsible for any disruption of shipping in that region.”
Mr Panetta said that the United States was “fully prepared for all contingencies” and added: “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that any Iranian attempt to close down shipping in the Gulf is something that we are going to be able to defeat.”
Naval forces from more than 30 countries were on Monday engaged in a massive minesweeping exercise in the Gulf, US officials said, amid Iranian threats to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The US-led International Mine Countermeasures Exercise (IMCMEX), the first of its kind in the Middle East, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran over the Islamic republic's controversial nuclear programme.
The exercise kicked off on Sunday, the same day as the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned of retaliation against the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and nearby US bases if his country is attacked and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Tehran is "90 percent" toward having a nuclear bomb...
... the anti-mine manoeuvres are designed to counter Iran's escalating threats to block the strategic straits.
This is "a message to all parties in the region: to the allies and Iran, that the US is ready to defend their common interests, keep the straits and maritime routes open and respond to any attacks against its bases in the region" said Riad Kahwaji, of the Institute for near East and Gulf military analysis in Dubai.
More than 500 ships, 60 percent of which are energy carriers, pass through the Straits every week, a strategic chokepoint that connects the Arabian Gulf, and some of the world's top oil producing nations to the rest of the world.
"This is a vital region where sea lanes and resources and international interests all intersect," said [Lieutenant Greg Raelson of the US Fifth fleet in Bahrain].
"Defending these interests against a sea mine attack is really a core mission of navy mine warfare... and this exercise is an effort to decrease the international threat of mining and to enhance our combined capabilities to provide long-term stability and security."
The anti-mine manoeuvres will last through September 27 and involve more than 30 nations including the United States, Britain, Japan, France, Yemen and Jordan.
Raelson said no manoeuvres "at all" will take place in the actual Strait of Hormuz, adding that a variety of anti-mine techniques will be practised, including "mine-hunting operations, helicopter mine countermeasures operations, dive operations, small boat exercises and international cross platform refuelling training."
General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Iranian Guards, told a news conference in Tehran on Sunday that the strait would be a legitimate target for Iran should it be attacked.
Jafari also suggested that US military bases -- the two largest in Bahrain and Qatar -- would be fair game for retaliation by Iran or proxy forces.
The US also has several military bases in Kuwait and a military presence in the United Arab Emirates....
From HazardEx, 17 September 2012:
According to the Daily Telegraph, a huge gathering of naval forces in the Gulf could be the opening act in a series of events that could culminate in an Israeli attack on Iran and a naval and aerial war to keep the Straits of Hormuz open. This show of naval force is said to be unprecedented outside of war.
The wargames are designed to counter any Iranian attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping in the event of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
The Telegraph says that the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is with the British helicopter carrier Illustrious on exercise in the eastern Mediterranean, and both could race to the Gulf at short notice. The latest Royal Navy destroyer Diamond is already in the Gulf with four minesweepers to take part in the wargames. They will develop tactics on how to breach any Iranian blockade of the straits and practice counter-mining drills.
Russia Today adds that a fourth US carrier strike group, based in Guam in the Pacific, could also be in the Gulf in a relatively short time.
A blockade of the straits could have a catastrophic effect on economies around the world, many of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf. Every day around 18 million barrels of oil, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s petroleum traded by sea, go through the straits.
Defence sources say that although Iran’s capability may not be technologically sophisticated, it will try to attack NATO and allied vessels using mini-subs, fast attack boats and shore-based anti-ship missiles. An important element of its area-denial strategy will be to lay mines in the shipping lanes used by oil tankers.
Next month, Iran will stage massive military manoeuvres of its own. The exercise is being showcased as the biggest air defence war game in the Islamic Republic’s history, and will be its most visible response yet to the prospect of an Israeli military strike. Using surface-to-air missiles, unmanned drones and state-of-the-art radar, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and air force will combine to test the defences of 3,600 sensitive locations throughout the country, including oil refineries and uranium enrichment facilities.
President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on September 17 to discuss the Iranian crisis. Many within the Obama administration believe that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before the US presidential elections in November.
Mr Netanyahu signalled recently that the time for a negotiated settlement had run out. He said: “The world tells Israel 'Wait, there’s still time.’ And I say, 'Wait for what? Wait until when?’ “Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps recently said that “Any enemies' plots” would be foiled and a heavy price exacted, adding: “We determine the rules of military conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz.”
But Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, warned that Iranian attempts to exercise control over the straits would be met with force.
He said: “The Iranians need to understand that the United States and the international community are going to hold them directly responsible for any disruption of shipping in that region.”
Mr Panetta said that the United States was “fully prepared for all contingencies” and added: “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that any Iranian attempt to close down shipping in the Gulf is something that we are going to be able to defeat.”
Israel, USA prepare for war
An Israeli mobile artillery drives through sandy terrain during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
The Israeli Defense Force has begun surprise live-fire war games on the Golan Heights, bordering unstable Lebanon and Syria. Officially, the Israeli military is practicing combat readiness to repel possible sudden attack from Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
The Chief of IDF General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered troops from the Northern and Central commands, reinforced by reservists, to simulate an emergency. The IDF insists the drill is a routine scheduled event, but for unknown reasons withheld from making public how many troops and what military vehicles are being involved in the war games.
But Israel Radio’s military affairs correspondent who is in regular contact with senior officers, said on air that the timing of the exercise was “not mere coincidence.”
Troops were flown by helicopter from central Israel to the Golan Heights for the exercise.
The live fire drill will be conducted later in the evening and will be overseen by the IDF’s Chief Artillery Officer, Brig. Gen. Roei Riftin.
Similar war games were held a year ago and last week the IDF held drills simulating a mass rocket assault on Israeli territory by Hezbollah.
The IDF has expressed concerns several times that the situation in neighboring Syria, where a civil war is in full swing, might get out of hand. Syria has a considerable chemical weapons stockpile and Israel fears these weapons could fall into the wrong hands if President Bashar al-Assad is ousted. Some defecting Syrian officers claim Assad has plans to hand some of the chemical weapons over to Hezbollah.
Starting from last week, the IDF began reinforcing the fence on the Israel-Syria border in the Golan Heights area. Military engineers implanted new motion sensors along the border, electrified parts of the fence to activate new alarm systems and planted mines in certain areas along the border.
Israeli soldiers are seen on a Israeli mobile artillery during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery and APC armored personel carriers cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery drives through sandy terrain during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
From a DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 19, 2012:
The Chief of IDF General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered troops from the Northern and Central commands, reinforced by reservists, to simulate an emergency. The IDF insists the drill is a routine scheduled event, but for unknown reasons withheld from making public how many troops and what military vehicles are being involved in the war games.
But Israel Radio’s military affairs correspondent who is in regular contact with senior officers, said on air that the timing of the exercise was “not mere coincidence.”
Troops were flown by helicopter from central Israel to the Golan Heights for the exercise.
The live fire drill will be conducted later in the evening and will be overseen by the IDF’s Chief Artillery Officer, Brig. Gen. Roei Riftin.
Similar war games were held a year ago and last week the IDF held drills simulating a mass rocket assault on Israeli territory by Hezbollah.
The IDF has expressed concerns several times that the situation in neighboring Syria, where a civil war is in full swing, might get out of hand. Syria has a considerable chemical weapons stockpile and Israel fears these weapons could fall into the wrong hands if President Bashar al-Assad is ousted. Some defecting Syrian officers claim Assad has plans to hand some of the chemical weapons over to Hezbollah.
Starting from last week, the IDF began reinforcing the fence on the Israel-Syria border in the Golan Heights area. Military engineers implanted new motion sensors along the border, electrified parts of the fence to activate new alarm systems and planted mines in certain areas along the border.
Israeli soldiers are seen on a Israeli mobile artillery during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery and APC armored personel carriers cross a road during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
An Israeli mobile artillery drives through sandy terrain during a military exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, north of Israel on September 19, 2012. (AFP Photo/Jack Guez)
From a DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 19, 2012:
Reservists drafted at no notice, Air Force, Central Command and other IDF
units were flown to Israel’s northern Golan border early Wednesday, Sept. 19,
for a surprise exercise called by Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz under the
codename “National Asset.”
The official IDF announcement tried to downplay its importance, describing it as a “planned, routine event.” However, debkafile’s military sources say the war game is the biggest the IDF has conducted in the eight years since the second Lebanon war on Hizballah in 2006, with tens of thousands of soldiers and senior officers, including the artillery and the air force taking part.
Over the last weekend, witnesses reported heavy traffic of convoys of tank and APC carriers and military vehicles with emergency store markings heading north, just days after the IDF completed a large-scale war game on Israel’s Syrian and Lebanese borders simulating a Hizballah attack.
Since early September, therefore, the Israeli Defense Forces have been in the midst of preparations which have the appearance of readiness for a real war rather than an exercise. Those preparations peaked Wednesday under a codename which signified its goal: the defense of national assets.
Another sign of an impending conflict was provided by US diplomats who Monday began destroying classified documents and sensitive equipment at the Beirut embassy. As Islamist anti-US violence raged across Arab and Muslim countries, the State Department said this was a precautionary measure, without naming any specific threat. The trashing of embassy documents usually signifies preparations to evacuate an US embassy at short notice. It would be imperative in a war situation to keep them out of Hizballah hands.
The official IDF announcement described the exercise as focusing on fire power under the command of chief Artillery Commander, Brig. Gen. Ro’i Riftin and due to end Wednesday night. The rapid deployment of military strength on this scale for a live-fire drill is required practice for an army facing the onset of war aggression.
In the Persian Gulf, the US is leading 25 West European and Arab nations in a gigantic 12-day war game in the Straits of Hormuz which began Sunday, Sept 16. It includes a large-scale minesweeping drill to simulate the breaching of the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian efforts to block oil passage through the strategic waterway. The exercise - entirely by simulated measures - will also drill operations for destroying Iranian naval, air and missile bases in the Persian Gulf area and countering Iranian speedboats aiming to sabotage naval vessels and oil tankers.Among the participants are the UK, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States has deployed three aircraft carriers with aerial strike forces. Military sources estimate that when the war game ends on Sept 27, these forces will not disperse but stay on hand in the event of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear program....
The official IDF announcement tried to downplay its importance, describing it as a “planned, routine event.” However, debkafile’s military sources say the war game is the biggest the IDF has conducted in the eight years since the second Lebanon war on Hizballah in 2006, with tens of thousands of soldiers and senior officers, including the artillery and the air force taking part.
Over the last weekend, witnesses reported heavy traffic of convoys of tank and APC carriers and military vehicles with emergency store markings heading north, just days after the IDF completed a large-scale war game on Israel’s Syrian and Lebanese borders simulating a Hizballah attack.
Since early September, therefore, the Israeli Defense Forces have been in the midst of preparations which have the appearance of readiness for a real war rather than an exercise. Those preparations peaked Wednesday under a codename which signified its goal: the defense of national assets.
Another sign of an impending conflict was provided by US diplomats who Monday began destroying classified documents and sensitive equipment at the Beirut embassy. As Islamist anti-US violence raged across Arab and Muslim countries, the State Department said this was a precautionary measure, without naming any specific threat. The trashing of embassy documents usually signifies preparations to evacuate an US embassy at short notice. It would be imperative in a war situation to keep them out of Hizballah hands.
The official IDF announcement described the exercise as focusing on fire power under the command of chief Artillery Commander, Brig. Gen. Ro’i Riftin and due to end Wednesday night. The rapid deployment of military strength on this scale for a live-fire drill is required practice for an army facing the onset of war aggression.
In the Persian Gulf, the US is leading 25 West European and Arab nations in a gigantic 12-day war game in the Straits of Hormuz which began Sunday, Sept 16. It includes a large-scale minesweeping drill to simulate the breaching of the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian efforts to block oil passage through the strategic waterway. The exercise - entirely by simulated measures - will also drill operations for destroying Iranian naval, air and missile bases in the Persian Gulf area and countering Iranian speedboats aiming to sabotage naval vessels and oil tankers.Among the participants are the UK, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States has deployed three aircraft carriers with aerial strike forces. Military sources estimate that when the war game ends on Sept 27, these forces will not disperse but stay on hand in the event of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear program....
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