From The Sunday Times (UK), September 23, 2007:
....Today [a Syrian secret military compound] near Dayr az-Zawr lies in ruins after it was pounded by Israeli F15Is on September 6. Before the Israelis issued the order to strike, the commandos had secretly seized samples of nuclear material and taken them back into Israel for examination by scientists, the sources say. A laboratory confirmed that the unspecified material was North Korean in origin. America approved an attack.
...The operation was personally directed by Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, who is said to have been largely preoccupied with it since taking up his post on June 18....
...Diplomats in North Korea and China said they believed a number of North Koreans were killed in the raid, noting that ballistic missile technicians and military scientists had been working for some time with the Syrians.
A senior Syrian official, Sayeed Elias Daoud, director of the Syrian Arab Ba’ath party, flew to North Korea via Beijing last Thursday, reinforcing the belief among foreign diplomats that the two nations are coordinating their response to the Israeli strike.
The growing assumption that North Korea suffered direct casualties in the raid appears to be based largely on the regime’s unusually strident propaganda on an issue far from home. But there were also indications of conversations between Chinese and North Korean officials and intelligence reports reaching Asian governments that supported the same conclusion, diplomats said.....
....Critics of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, believe he has shown poor judgment since succeeding his father Hafez, Syria’s long-time dictator, in 2000. According to David Schenker, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, he has provoked the enmity of almost all Syria’s neighbours and turned his country into a “client” of Iran.
.... questions remain about the precise nature of the material seized and about Syria’s intentions. Was Syria hiding North Korean nuclear equipment while Pyongyang prepared for six-party talks aimed at securing an end to its nuclear weapons programme in return for security guarantees and aid? Did Syria want to arm its own Scuds with a nuclear device?
Or could the material have been destined for Iran as John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, has suggested? And just how deep is Syrian and North Korean nuclear cooperation anyway?
China abruptly postponed a session of the nuclear disarmament talks last week because it feared America might confront the North Koreans over their weapons deals with Syria, according to sources close to the Chinese foreign ministry. Negotiations have been rescheduled for this Thursday in Beijing after assurances were given that all sides wished them to be “constructive”.
Christopher Hill, the US State Department negotiator, is said to have persuaded the White House that the talks offered a realistic chance to accomplish a peace treaty formally ending the 1950-1953 Korean war, in which more than 50,000 Americans died. A peace deal of that magnitude would be a coup for Bush – but only if the North Koreans genuinely abandon their nuclear programmes.
The outlines of a long-term arms relationship between the North Koreans and the Syrians are now being reexamined by intelligence experts in several capitals. Diplomats in Pyongyang have said they believe reports that about a dozen Syrian technicians were killed in a massive explosion and railway crash in North Korea on April 22, 2004. Teams of military personnel wearing protective suits were seen removing debris from the section of the train in which the Syrians were travelling, according to a report quoting military sources that appeared in a Japanese newspaper. Their bodies were flown home by a Syrian military cargo plane that was spotted shortly after the explosion at Pyongyang airport.
In December last year, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Seyassah quoted European intelligence sources in Brussels as saying that Syria was engaged in an advanced nuclear programme in its northeastern province.
Most diplomats and experts dismiss the idea that Syria could master the technical and industrial knowhow to make its own nuclear devices. The vital question is whether North Korea could have transferred some of its estimated 55 kilos of weapons-grade plutonium to Syria. Six to eight kilos are enough for one rudimentary bomb.
“If it is proved that Kim Jong-il sold fissile material to Syria in breach of every red line the Americans have drawn for him, what does that mean?” asked one official. The results of tests on whatever the Israelis may have seized from the Syrian site could therefore be of enormous significance.
The Israeli army has so far declined to comment on the attack. However, several days afterwards, at a gathering marking the Jewish new year, the commander-in-chief of the Israeli military shook hands with and congratulated his generals. The scene was broadcast on Israeli television. After the fiasco in Lebanon last year, it was regarded as a sign that “we’re back in business, guys”.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Putin to visit Tehran Oct. 16
From a DEBKAfile Exclusive Report, September 23, 2007:
Iran’s suspect nuclear program is further polarizing the big powers.
[Putin's will attend a Caspian Asian Summit for talks with Iranian leaders, including the signing of a document to finish and fuel the long-delayed Bushehr nuclear reactor. He will also drum up friends and influence in the Caspian-Central Asian region. DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Report: "Putin Turns His Face to Tehran, His Back to Bush and Sarkozy" (extracts below) takes a close look at the Russian president’s agenda in Tehran]
As American and European officials discussed a third round of UN Security Council sanctions, Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, more pugnacious than ever, addressed a military parade Sat. Sept. 22 ...
..."The Iranian nation is ready to bring any oppressive power to its knees," read a slogan from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, inscribed on a massive board on a truck as a new, improved long-range, 1,800-km range surface missile trundled by.
Other slogans called for "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." Western military attaches, apparently warned in advance, boycotted the rally for the second year running.
But there is no escape: These are the messages Ahmadinejad takes with him this week to the UN General Assembly and Columbia University in New York.
The French president Nicolas Sarkozy meanwhile stands shoulder to shoulder with President George W. Bush. Friday, Sept. 21, he said: “Iran is trying to obtain an atomic bomb. That is unacceptable and I tell the French people it is unacceptable.” A week ago, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner warned that the world faced war if diplomacy and sanctions failed to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.
But Vladimir Putin pulled in the opposite direction from his two fellows in the UN Security Council when he decided to be the first Russian president to visit Tehran on Oct. 16. The visit, in the framework of the Caspian Asian Summit, is planned to encompass much more than state ceremonial and ritual photo-ops, although there will be plenty of that too.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), Reza Aghazadeh, said a document would be signed setting the timeline for Russia to complete the long-delayed Bushehr nuclear plant and deliver the fuel to activate it.
Last week, at the general conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian and Russian teams began formulating the document to be signed by their heads of state. Reporting this, Aghazadeh also described a most useful conversation he had with the head of Russian’s Federal Atomic Energy Agency, Sergei Kiriyenko.
In its long dispute with Moscow, Tehran claims Russia had contracted to commission the Bushehr plant in 2000. This was later amended and under the fifth agreement negotiated between Tehran and Moscow, Russia undertook to deliver 90 tons of fuel by March 2007 and commission Bushehr nuclear plant by September 2007.
According to DEBKAfile’s sources in Moscow and Washington, the Russian president had four goals in sight when he decided to settle his dispute with the Islamic Republic and join the rulers of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan at the Caspian Sea Summit in Tehran:
1. He will be on hand to underscore Moscow’s concern and conviction that the last two or three months of 2007 will take the controversy over the Iranian nuclear program to crisis point and could determine whether or not America resorts to the military option.
The Russians have marked this period as crunch time for the international community. The UN and its Security Council will have to decide then between two options: endorse the IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei’s deal with Tehran, under which Iran promises to open up secret compartments of its program to international inspection, or else support the tougher economic sanctions advocated by the United States.
Our Washington sources report that administration heads accuse ElBaradei of practicing deceit and underhand machinations for the sake of giving Iran more time for large-scale uranium enrichment up to weapons grade, safe from the threat of a third round of sanctions until after President Bush departs the White House in Jan. 2009.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made no bones about the low esteem in which the chief nuclear inspector is held by the administration when she said Sept 19: “Diplomacy is best left to diplomats, not a technical body such as the International Atomic Energy Agency.”
This view is fully endorsed by Israel.
2. The Russian and Iranian presidents will publicly sign a new nuclear accord, attended by international television and media hype. This is a ploy to reposition Russia in Arab and Muslim eyes. Putin wants to demonstrate that Moscow has no objection to supplying a Muslim nation with a nuclear reactor, technology and fuel, in contrast to Washington, which is willing to go as far as military action to thwart such acquisitions.
3. The Russians are uneasy about the new Washington-Paris alliance. They were alarmed by the outspoken rhetoric coming from Sarkozy and Kouchner slamming Iran and aligning with the US - up to and including military conflict.
Putin sees the French president moving into position as Bush’s leading foreign partner in place of Britain’s Tony Blair as a portent of a potential American-European fence to block off Moscow’s influence in Europe. He links this potential with Washington’s plan to set up missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic and perceives a strong line forming on the map of Europe that threatens to reverse his diplomatic gains on the continent and circumscribe his drive for the control of its supplies of energy.
These issues were undoubtedly thrashed out when the French foreign minister met his Russian opposite number Sergey Lavrov in Moscow last week.
4. Sitting together at the head of the table at the Caspian Sea Summit next month, Putin and Ahmadinejad will be broadcasting a message to Washington and the nations of Central Asia that the future and security of Caspian and Central Asian natural resources and oil do not depend entirely on their relations Washington, or even the US military bases going up on their soil. Russia will be posing a stiff challenge to America in Central Asia by holding out the offer of joint-strategic sponsorship with Iran.
Iran’s suspect nuclear program is further polarizing the big powers.
[Putin's will attend a Caspian Asian Summit for talks with Iranian leaders, including the signing of a document to finish and fuel the long-delayed Bushehr nuclear reactor. He will also drum up friends and influence in the Caspian-Central Asian region. DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Report: "Putin Turns His Face to Tehran, His Back to Bush and Sarkozy" (extracts below) takes a close look at the Russian president’s agenda in Tehran]
As American and European officials discussed a third round of UN Security Council sanctions, Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, more pugnacious than ever, addressed a military parade Sat. Sept. 22 ...
..."The Iranian nation is ready to bring any oppressive power to its knees," read a slogan from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, inscribed on a massive board on a truck as a new, improved long-range, 1,800-km range surface missile trundled by.
Other slogans called for "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." Western military attaches, apparently warned in advance, boycotted the rally for the second year running.
But there is no escape: These are the messages Ahmadinejad takes with him this week to the UN General Assembly and Columbia University in New York.
The French president Nicolas Sarkozy meanwhile stands shoulder to shoulder with President George W. Bush. Friday, Sept. 21, he said: “Iran is trying to obtain an atomic bomb. That is unacceptable and I tell the French people it is unacceptable.” A week ago, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner warned that the world faced war if diplomacy and sanctions failed to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.
But Vladimir Putin pulled in the opposite direction from his two fellows in the UN Security Council when he decided to be the first Russian president to visit Tehran on Oct. 16. The visit, in the framework of the Caspian Asian Summit, is planned to encompass much more than state ceremonial and ritual photo-ops, although there will be plenty of that too.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), Reza Aghazadeh, said a document would be signed setting the timeline for Russia to complete the long-delayed Bushehr nuclear plant and deliver the fuel to activate it.
Last week, at the general conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian and Russian teams began formulating the document to be signed by their heads of state. Reporting this, Aghazadeh also described a most useful conversation he had with the head of Russian’s Federal Atomic Energy Agency, Sergei Kiriyenko.
In its long dispute with Moscow, Tehran claims Russia had contracted to commission the Bushehr plant in 2000. This was later amended and under the fifth agreement negotiated between Tehran and Moscow, Russia undertook to deliver 90 tons of fuel by March 2007 and commission Bushehr nuclear plant by September 2007.
According to DEBKAfile’s sources in Moscow and Washington, the Russian president had four goals in sight when he decided to settle his dispute with the Islamic Republic and join the rulers of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan at the Caspian Sea Summit in Tehran:
1. He will be on hand to underscore Moscow’s concern and conviction that the last two or three months of 2007 will take the controversy over the Iranian nuclear program to crisis point and could determine whether or not America resorts to the military option.
The Russians have marked this period as crunch time for the international community. The UN and its Security Council will have to decide then between two options: endorse the IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei’s deal with Tehran, under which Iran promises to open up secret compartments of its program to international inspection, or else support the tougher economic sanctions advocated by the United States.
Our Washington sources report that administration heads accuse ElBaradei of practicing deceit and underhand machinations for the sake of giving Iran more time for large-scale uranium enrichment up to weapons grade, safe from the threat of a third round of sanctions until after President Bush departs the White House in Jan. 2009.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made no bones about the low esteem in which the chief nuclear inspector is held by the administration when she said Sept 19: “Diplomacy is best left to diplomats, not a technical body such as the International Atomic Energy Agency.”
This view is fully endorsed by Israel.
2. The Russian and Iranian presidents will publicly sign a new nuclear accord, attended by international television and media hype. This is a ploy to reposition Russia in Arab and Muslim eyes. Putin wants to demonstrate that Moscow has no objection to supplying a Muslim nation with a nuclear reactor, technology and fuel, in contrast to Washington, which is willing to go as far as military action to thwart such acquisitions.
3. The Russians are uneasy about the new Washington-Paris alliance. They were alarmed by the outspoken rhetoric coming from Sarkozy and Kouchner slamming Iran and aligning with the US - up to and including military conflict.
Putin sees the French president moving into position as Bush’s leading foreign partner in place of Britain’s Tony Blair as a portent of a potential American-European fence to block off Moscow’s influence in Europe. He links this potential with Washington’s plan to set up missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic and perceives a strong line forming on the map of Europe that threatens to reverse his diplomatic gains on the continent and circumscribe his drive for the control of its supplies of energy.
These issues were undoubtedly thrashed out when the French foreign minister met his Russian opposite number Sergey Lavrov in Moscow last week.
4. Sitting together at the head of the table at the Caspian Sea Summit next month, Putin and Ahmadinejad will be broadcasting a message to Washington and the nations of Central Asia that the future and security of Caspian and Central Asian natural resources and oil do not depend entirely on their relations Washington, or even the US military bases going up on their soil. Russia will be posing a stiff challenge to America in Central Asia by holding out the offer of joint-strategic sponsorship with Iran.
More Palestinian prisoners to be released
From JPost.com, Sep 23, 2007, by HERB KEINON AND YAAKOV KATZ:
It took two weeks more than expected, but the cabinet on Sunday approved the release of [another] 90 Palestinian security prisoners as a gesture to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in honor of Ramadan. [
...Even as Israel decided to release prisoners, the IDF arrested on Sunday a Palestinian who was pardoned last month by Israel.]
A plan to discuss the issue at a cabinet meting on September 9 was scuttled at the last minute after a Kassam rocket slammed into the courtyard of a Sderot daycare center. The issue was expected to be raised the following week, but was postponed again following the Kassam rocket attack on the Zikim army base.
On Sunday, the release - which followed by some two months a previous release of 250 security prisoners as a goodwill gesture to Abbas - passed by a vote of 16-6.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz (Kadima,) Tourism Minister Yitzhak Aharonovich (Israel Beitenu,) and the four Shas ministers voted against the release. Israel Beitenu head Avigdor Lieberman was not present for the vote.
Olmert told the cabinet before the vote that the release would not impact on efforts to secure the release of kidnapped IDF Cpl. Gilad Schalit, since none of those freed were prisoners that Hamas was demanding. He said the prisoners would be released according to criteria established in the past, and that Israel traditionally released a number of prisoners for Ramadan.
...Mofaz, who was opposed to the prisoner release in July, told the cabinet that Israel hadn't received anything in return for the previous prisoner release, and wouldn't receive anything this time, either. "These are steps that send a signal of weakness and lack of determination, especially when talking about a release of prisoners from Gaza," Mofaz said. "We haven't seen anything change in the PA - the terrorism doesn't stop, the Palestinian security officials don't work, and they don't take any responsibility."
...Even as Israel decided to release prisoners, the IDF arrested on Sunday a Palestinian who was pardoned last month by Israel. Faris Nazar, a 21-year-old member of the Tanzim terror group, was apprehended at his home in Kfar Kalil, near Nablus. IDF sources said Nazar was among the 178 Palestinian terror suspects who were temporarily "pardoned" by Israel last month and given the opportunity to return to a normal life in exchange for surrendering their weapons and ceasing their involvement in terror activity. He was the first of those who received this amnesty to be re-arrested.
Central Command sources said Nazar was behind a number of recent bomb and shooting attacks against IDF troops in the Nablus area. The IDF said all of the pardoned fugitives were under constant surveillance and if they broke the agreement they would be arrested.
...Meanwhile Sunday, the IDF wrapped up a week-long operation in Nablus during which troops apprehended a suicide bomber as well as the head of Hamas in the city.
On Sunday, troops entered a home in pursuit of a terror suspect and found his pregnant wife sitting on their bed. The woman told the soldiers she could not move since she was fee ling unwell. The soldiers convinced her to get off the bed, under which they discovered a pit in which the fugitive was hiding.
It took two weeks more than expected, but the cabinet on Sunday approved the release of [another] 90 Palestinian security prisoners as a gesture to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in honor of Ramadan. [
...Even as Israel decided to release prisoners, the IDF arrested on Sunday a Palestinian who was pardoned last month by Israel.]
A plan to discuss the issue at a cabinet meting on September 9 was scuttled at the last minute after a Kassam rocket slammed into the courtyard of a Sderot daycare center. The issue was expected to be raised the following week, but was postponed again following the Kassam rocket attack on the Zikim army base.
On Sunday, the release - which followed by some two months a previous release of 250 security prisoners as a goodwill gesture to Abbas - passed by a vote of 16-6.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz (Kadima,) Tourism Minister Yitzhak Aharonovich (Israel Beitenu,) and the four Shas ministers voted against the release. Israel Beitenu head Avigdor Lieberman was not present for the vote.
Olmert told the cabinet before the vote that the release would not impact on efforts to secure the release of kidnapped IDF Cpl. Gilad Schalit, since none of those freed were prisoners that Hamas was demanding. He said the prisoners would be released according to criteria established in the past, and that Israel traditionally released a number of prisoners for Ramadan.
...Mofaz, who was opposed to the prisoner release in July, told the cabinet that Israel hadn't received anything in return for the previous prisoner release, and wouldn't receive anything this time, either. "These are steps that send a signal of weakness and lack of determination, especially when talking about a release of prisoners from Gaza," Mofaz said. "We haven't seen anything change in the PA - the terrorism doesn't stop, the Palestinian security officials don't work, and they don't take any responsibility."
...Even as Israel decided to release prisoners, the IDF arrested on Sunday a Palestinian who was pardoned last month by Israel. Faris Nazar, a 21-year-old member of the Tanzim terror group, was apprehended at his home in Kfar Kalil, near Nablus. IDF sources said Nazar was among the 178 Palestinian terror suspects who were temporarily "pardoned" by Israel last month and given the opportunity to return to a normal life in exchange for surrendering their weapons and ceasing their involvement in terror activity. He was the first of those who received this amnesty to be re-arrested.
Central Command sources said Nazar was behind a number of recent bomb and shooting attacks against IDF troops in the Nablus area. The IDF said all of the pardoned fugitives were under constant surveillance and if they broke the agreement they would be arrested.
...Meanwhile Sunday, the IDF wrapped up a week-long operation in Nablus during which troops apprehended a suicide bomber as well as the head of Hamas in the city.
On Sunday, troops entered a home in pursuit of a terror suspect and found his pregnant wife sitting on their bed. The woman told the soldiers she could not move since she was fee ling unwell. The soldiers convinced her to get off the bed, under which they discovered a pit in which the fugitive was hiding.
EU to give e15 million to college run by allegedly anti-Semitic priest
From Haaretz, 23/9/07, by Anshel Pfeffer, Correspondent:
The European Union has decided to give 15 million euros to a Polish college headed by controversial Catholic priest Tadeusz Rydzyk, who is accused regularly of disseminating anti-Semitism. The College of Social and Media Culture, is affiliated with Rydzyk's radio station Radia Maryja, which itself has been accused of regularly hosting Holocaust deniers on its programs.
Holocaust survivor organizations have launched a campaign to block the move. Noah Flug, chairman of the Center of Organizations of Holocaust Survivors in Israel, has asked EU Commissioner Jose Manuel Barroso to prevent the transfer of funds to the institution.
In addition to accusations of anti-Semitism, the institution is widely considered to oppose the European Union. The intention to fund the college is interpreted by some as an attempt by the EU and the government of Poland to silence one of the union's loudest opponents. Rydzyk has recently received press for several anti-Semitic statements he has made on the radio station and at the college, which he founded and heads. He recently told students that Jews use the American financier George Soros' money to seize control of Poland, and regularly blames Jews of being greedy. "Public figures in Poland have expressed sorrow for the pogrom after the war against the Jews in Jedwabne only because they received Jewish bribes ... All of the claims by Jews of the injustice that was caused to them had one goal: to extort money from the Polish," Rydzyk has been quoted as saying.
The Polish weekly Wprost published excerpts from a lecture Rydzyk allegedly delivered at the college, where he is quoted as criticizing Lech Kaczynski, the president, for bowing to pressure to compensate people - many of them Jews - for property nationalized by the postwar communist government, and for donating land for a future Jewish museum when Kaczynski was Warsaw's mayor. "You know that it's about Poland giving $65 billion dollars to the Jews," Rydzyk reportedly said. "They will come to you and say: give me your coat. Take off your pants. Give me your shoes."
The European Union has decided to give 15 million euros to a Polish college headed by controversial Catholic priest Tadeusz Rydzyk, who is accused regularly of disseminating anti-Semitism. The College of Social and Media Culture, is affiliated with Rydzyk's radio station Radia Maryja, which itself has been accused of regularly hosting Holocaust deniers on its programs.
Holocaust survivor organizations have launched a campaign to block the move. Noah Flug, chairman of the Center of Organizations of Holocaust Survivors in Israel, has asked EU Commissioner Jose Manuel Barroso to prevent the transfer of funds to the institution.
In addition to accusations of anti-Semitism, the institution is widely considered to oppose the European Union. The intention to fund the college is interpreted by some as an attempt by the EU and the government of Poland to silence one of the union's loudest opponents. Rydzyk has recently received press for several anti-Semitic statements he has made on the radio station and at the college, which he founded and heads. He recently told students that Jews use the American financier George Soros' money to seize control of Poland, and regularly blames Jews of being greedy. "Public figures in Poland have expressed sorrow for the pogrom after the war against the Jews in Jedwabne only because they received Jewish bribes ... All of the claims by Jews of the injustice that was caused to them had one goal: to extort money from the Polish," Rydzyk has been quoted as saying.
The Polish weekly Wprost published excerpts from a lecture Rydzyk allegedly delivered at the college, where he is quoted as criticizing Lech Kaczynski, the president, for bowing to pressure to compensate people - many of them Jews - for property nationalized by the postwar communist government, and for donating land for a future Jewish museum when Kaczynski was Warsaw's mayor. "You know that it's about Poland giving $65 billion dollars to the Jews," Rydzyk reportedly said. "They will come to you and say: give me your coat. Take off your pants. Give me your shoes."
Mythmakers About the Middle East
From GLORIA, Barry Rubin, September 19, 2007:
People don't often threaten to murder me face to face. But in the spring of 2007, Alexis Debat, director of the terrorism program at the Nixon Center and consultant to ABC News, did so. Precisely why is not clear to me even now, but it seemed to be part of a pattern of bizarre instability that he emanated. I had never met anyone who struck me as a more obvious fabulist.
Yet after thirty years of studying the Middle East it was not surprising to meet people like that. The region is full of them, even at the highest political and intellectual levels, and they are by no means absent from the field of studying that area in the West.
....At the lunch, Debat went on and on about his inside links with terrorism and its key figures, providing lots of details. Of course, no one could verify these details, which meant one was given free reign to make them up. I applied the old Arab proverb:
"How do you know it is a lie?
Because it is so big."
His claims were just too good to be true. And his bragging about having worked with French intelligence only added to my suspicions, since that organization is known for its tendency to, shall we say, get a little too enthusiastic in claiming fabulous inside information.
Perhaps I made my feelings a little too clear, for as we walked from the restaurant, Debat insisted on going along with me to the subway. And there on the corner of Q Street, he said: "I am a great admirer of your work. Some day I might have the great honor of killing you."
"What did you say?" I asked in astonishment. He was a bit flustered but did not deny what he said. I asked him if he was threatening me, but he just smiled to let me know that his message had been conveyed.
I did not take this seriously as a real threat that he was going to do anything...Yet clearly this was someone to stay away from and who should be given no credibility.
It reminded me of an incident thirty years earlier. A fellow had appeared at various Middle East studies meetings saying he was with "army intelligence" and that he had all sorts of internal documents about the decisions of the new revolutionary leadership in Iran. He drew big audiences at such events and was invited by a leading expert on Iran to an elite seminar, where the professor proclaimed that he was a great expert.
A bit of research by a group of people including myself discovered that he was an enlisted soldier at a field intelligence unit--without access to high-level political intelligence of the kind he was fabricating. One of my colleagues intervened to stop a major university from hiring him. The individual did get a job at a smaller school.
Fabulists, suffering from psychological problems, greed, ambitions, and often with a political agenda, are not uncommon in studying or writing about the Middle East. That is in part due to the region's importance and in part due to the fact that you can apparently get away with anything. The rules of logic don't apply to a region where terrorists are magically transformed into freedom fighters; anti-Americanism is covered up or rationalized away; one thing is said in Arabic or Persian and the opposite in English; conspiracy theories are rife and get credibility even in the highest circles of American intellectuals and publishers; and so on. It is a subject area where completely unqualified people ...can ...even get U.S. government contracts to do it.
In universities in the United States today, many courses on the Middle East are taught just about as they would be at the University of Damascus or Tehran by people who hold those same ideologies. Indeed, the work of the biggest current guru for this school, Edward Said, was in itself a gigantic fraud. And what is more telling than when some of his autobiographical lies were exposed, the attacks were on the scholar who published this information and not on the one who fabricated it?
The works of Walt and Mearsheimer have about as much in common with the actual making of U.S. foreign policy as the idea that the American government carried out the September 11 attacks on itself, the sun goes around the earth, or the world is flat.
Yasir Arafat, a major league fabulist himself, once told an Arab leader who complained about his fantasies that if he was willing to die for Palestine he was certainly willing to lie for Palestine.
Yet there are supposed to be checks against such behavior. Two of the main ones are universities and the media. Yet when large elements in both have gone over to factual fable-making or, more likely, analytical fable-making, who is going to guard against the intrusion of lies, madness, and anti-democratic forces?
Nothing says it better than Woody Guthrie's "Ballad of Pretty Boy Floyd":
"Yes, as through this world I've wandered
I've seen lots of funny men;
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen."
People don't often threaten to murder me face to face. But in the spring of 2007, Alexis Debat, director of the terrorism program at the Nixon Center and consultant to ABC News, did so. Precisely why is not clear to me even now, but it seemed to be part of a pattern of bizarre instability that he emanated. I had never met anyone who struck me as a more obvious fabulist.
Yet after thirty years of studying the Middle East it was not surprising to meet people like that. The region is full of them, even at the highest political and intellectual levels, and they are by no means absent from the field of studying that area in the West.
....At the lunch, Debat went on and on about his inside links with terrorism and its key figures, providing lots of details. Of course, no one could verify these details, which meant one was given free reign to make them up. I applied the old Arab proverb:
"How do you know it is a lie?
Because it is so big."
His claims were just too good to be true. And his bragging about having worked with French intelligence only added to my suspicions, since that organization is known for its tendency to, shall we say, get a little too enthusiastic in claiming fabulous inside information.
Perhaps I made my feelings a little too clear, for as we walked from the restaurant, Debat insisted on going along with me to the subway. And there on the corner of Q Street, he said: "I am a great admirer of your work. Some day I might have the great honor of killing you."
"What did you say?" I asked in astonishment. He was a bit flustered but did not deny what he said. I asked him if he was threatening me, but he just smiled to let me know that his message had been conveyed.
I did not take this seriously as a real threat that he was going to do anything...Yet clearly this was someone to stay away from and who should be given no credibility.
It reminded me of an incident thirty years earlier. A fellow had appeared at various Middle East studies meetings saying he was with "army intelligence" and that he had all sorts of internal documents about the decisions of the new revolutionary leadership in Iran. He drew big audiences at such events and was invited by a leading expert on Iran to an elite seminar, where the professor proclaimed that he was a great expert.
A bit of research by a group of people including myself discovered that he was an enlisted soldier at a field intelligence unit--without access to high-level political intelligence of the kind he was fabricating. One of my colleagues intervened to stop a major university from hiring him. The individual did get a job at a smaller school.
Fabulists, suffering from psychological problems, greed, ambitions, and often with a political agenda, are not uncommon in studying or writing about the Middle East. That is in part due to the region's importance and in part due to the fact that you can apparently get away with anything. The rules of logic don't apply to a region where terrorists are magically transformed into freedom fighters; anti-Americanism is covered up or rationalized away; one thing is said in Arabic or Persian and the opposite in English; conspiracy theories are rife and get credibility even in the highest circles of American intellectuals and publishers; and so on. It is a subject area where completely unqualified people ...can ...even get U.S. government contracts to do it.
In universities in the United States today, many courses on the Middle East are taught just about as they would be at the University of Damascus or Tehran by people who hold those same ideologies. Indeed, the work of the biggest current guru for this school, Edward Said, was in itself a gigantic fraud. And what is more telling than when some of his autobiographical lies were exposed, the attacks were on the scholar who published this information and not on the one who fabricated it?
The works of Walt and Mearsheimer have about as much in common with the actual making of U.S. foreign policy as the idea that the American government carried out the September 11 attacks on itself, the sun goes around the earth, or the world is flat.
Yasir Arafat, a major league fabulist himself, once told an Arab leader who complained about his fantasies that if he was willing to die for Palestine he was certainly willing to lie for Palestine.
Yet there are supposed to be checks against such behavior. Two of the main ones are universities and the media. Yet when large elements in both have gone over to factual fable-making or, more likely, analytical fable-making, who is going to guard against the intrusion of lies, madness, and anti-democratic forces?
Nothing says it better than Woody Guthrie's "Ballad of Pretty Boy Floyd":
"Yes, as through this world I've wandered
I've seen lots of funny men;
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen."
Israel, U.S. Shared Data On Suspected Nuclear Site
From Washington Post, by Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright, Staff Writers Friday, September 21, 2007; Page A01 [quoted in full]:
Bush Was Told of North Korean Presence in Syria, Sources Say
Israel's decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.
The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or the underlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeply troubled by Israel's assertion that North Korea was assisting the nuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.
Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.
The target of Israel's attack was said to be in northern Syria, near the Turkish border. A Middle East expert who interviewed one of the pilots involved said they operated under such strict operational security that the airmen flying air cover for the attack aircraft did not know the details of the mission. The pilots who conducted the attack were briefed only after they were in the air, he said. Syrian authorities said there were no casualties.
U.S. sources would discuss the Israeli intelligence, which included satellite imagery, only on condition of anonymity, and many details about the North Korean-Syrian connection remain unknown. The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the extent of North Korean assistance and the seriousness of the Syrian effort are uncertain, raising the possibility that North Korea was merely unloading items it no longer needed. Syria has actively pursued chemical weapons in the past but not nuclear arms -- leaving some proliferation experts skeptical of the intelligence that prompted Israel's attack.
Syria and North Korea both denied this week that they were cooperating on a nuclear program. Bush refused to comment yesterday on the attack, but he issued a blunt warning to North Korea that "the exportation of information and/or materials" would affect negotiations under which North Korea would give up its nuclear programs in exchanges for energy aid and diplomatic recognition.
"To the extent that they are proliferating, we expect them to stop that proliferation, if they want the six-party talks to be successful," he said at a news conference, referring to negotiations that also include China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.
Unlike its destruction of an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel made no announcement of the recent raid and imposed strict censorship on reporting by the Israeli media. Syria made only muted protests, and Arab leaders have remained silent. As a result, a daring and apparently successful attack to eliminate a potential nuclear threat has been shrouded in mystery.
"There is no question it was a major raid. It was an extremely important target," said Bruce Riedel, a former intelligence officer at Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. "It came at a time the Israelis were very concerned about war with Syria and wanted to dampen down the prospects of war. The decision was taken despite their concerns it could produce a war. That decision reflects how important this target was to Israeli military planners."
Israel has long known about Syria's interest in chemical and even biological weapons, but "if Syria decided to go beyond that, Israel would think that was a real red line," Riedel said.
Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and founding director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that when he was in Israel this summer he noticed "a great deal of concern in official Israeli circles about the situation in the north," in particular whether Syria's young ruler, Bashar al-Assad, "had the same sensitivity to red lines that his father had." Bashar succeeded his Hafez al-Assad as president of Syria in 2000.
The Israeli attack came just three days after a North Korean ship docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, carrying a cargo that was officially listed as cement. The ship's role remains obscure. Israeli sources have suggested it carried nuclear equipment. Others have maintained that it contained only missile parts, and some have said the ship's arrival and the attack are merely coincidental. One source suggested that Israel's attack was prompted by a fear of media leaks on the intelligence.
The Bush administration's wariness when presented with the Israeli intelligence contrasts with its reaction in 2002, when U.S. officials believed they had caught North Korea building a clandestine nuclear program in violation of a nuclear-freeze deal arranged by the Clinton administration.
After the Bush administration's accusation, the Clinton deal collapsed and North Korea restarted a nuclear reactor, stockpiled plutonium and eventually conducted a nuclear test. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice convinced Bush this year to accept a deal with North Korea to shut down the reactor, infuriating conservatives inside and outside the administration.
But for years, Bush has also warned North Korea against engaging in nuclear proliferation, specifically making that a red line that could not be crossed after North Korea tested a nuclear device last year. The Israeli intelligence therefore suggested North Korea was both undermining the agreement and crossing that line.
Conservative critics of the administration's recent diplomacy with North Korea have seized on reports of the Israeli intelligence as evidence that the White House is misguided if it thinks it can ever strike a lasting deal with Pyongyang. "However bad it might be for the six-party talks, U.S. security requires taking this sort of thing seriously," said John R. Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who was a top arms control official in Bush's first term.
But advocates of engagement have accused critics of trying to sabotage the talks. China on Monday abruptly postponed a round of six-party talks scheduled to begin this week, but U.S. officials now say the talks should start again Thursday.
Some North Korean experts said they are puzzled why, if the reports are true, Pyongyang would jeopardize the hard-won deal with the United States and the other four countries. "It does not make any sense at all in the context of the last nine months," said Charles "Jack" Pritchard, a former U.S. negotiator with North Korea and now president of the Korea Economic Institute.
Bush Was Told of North Korean Presence in Syria, Sources Say
Israel's decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.
The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or the underlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeply troubled by Israel's assertion that North Korea was assisting the nuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.
Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.
The target of Israel's attack was said to be in northern Syria, near the Turkish border. A Middle East expert who interviewed one of the pilots involved said they operated under such strict operational security that the airmen flying air cover for the attack aircraft did not know the details of the mission. The pilots who conducted the attack were briefed only after they were in the air, he said. Syrian authorities said there were no casualties.
U.S. sources would discuss the Israeli intelligence, which included satellite imagery, only on condition of anonymity, and many details about the North Korean-Syrian connection remain unknown. The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the extent of North Korean assistance and the seriousness of the Syrian effort are uncertain, raising the possibility that North Korea was merely unloading items it no longer needed. Syria has actively pursued chemical weapons in the past but not nuclear arms -- leaving some proliferation experts skeptical of the intelligence that prompted Israel's attack.
Syria and North Korea both denied this week that they were cooperating on a nuclear program. Bush refused to comment yesterday on the attack, but he issued a blunt warning to North Korea that "the exportation of information and/or materials" would affect negotiations under which North Korea would give up its nuclear programs in exchanges for energy aid and diplomatic recognition.
"To the extent that they are proliferating, we expect them to stop that proliferation, if they want the six-party talks to be successful," he said at a news conference, referring to negotiations that also include China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.
Unlike its destruction of an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel made no announcement of the recent raid and imposed strict censorship on reporting by the Israeli media. Syria made only muted protests, and Arab leaders have remained silent. As a result, a daring and apparently successful attack to eliminate a potential nuclear threat has been shrouded in mystery.
"There is no question it was a major raid. It was an extremely important target," said Bruce Riedel, a former intelligence officer at Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. "It came at a time the Israelis were very concerned about war with Syria and wanted to dampen down the prospects of war. The decision was taken despite their concerns it could produce a war. That decision reflects how important this target was to Israeli military planners."
Israel has long known about Syria's interest in chemical and even biological weapons, but "if Syria decided to go beyond that, Israel would think that was a real red line," Riedel said.
Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and founding director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that when he was in Israel this summer he noticed "a great deal of concern in official Israeli circles about the situation in the north," in particular whether Syria's young ruler, Bashar al-Assad, "had the same sensitivity to red lines that his father had." Bashar succeeded his Hafez al-Assad as president of Syria in 2000.
The Israeli attack came just three days after a North Korean ship docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, carrying a cargo that was officially listed as cement. The ship's role remains obscure. Israeli sources have suggested it carried nuclear equipment. Others have maintained that it contained only missile parts, and some have said the ship's arrival and the attack are merely coincidental. One source suggested that Israel's attack was prompted by a fear of media leaks on the intelligence.
The Bush administration's wariness when presented with the Israeli intelligence contrasts with its reaction in 2002, when U.S. officials believed they had caught North Korea building a clandestine nuclear program in violation of a nuclear-freeze deal arranged by the Clinton administration.
After the Bush administration's accusation, the Clinton deal collapsed and North Korea restarted a nuclear reactor, stockpiled plutonium and eventually conducted a nuclear test. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice convinced Bush this year to accept a deal with North Korea to shut down the reactor, infuriating conservatives inside and outside the administration.
But for years, Bush has also warned North Korea against engaging in nuclear proliferation, specifically making that a red line that could not be crossed after North Korea tested a nuclear device last year. The Israeli intelligence therefore suggested North Korea was both undermining the agreement and crossing that line.
Conservative critics of the administration's recent diplomacy with North Korea have seized on reports of the Israeli intelligence as evidence that the White House is misguided if it thinks it can ever strike a lasting deal with Pyongyang. "However bad it might be for the six-party talks, U.S. security requires taking this sort of thing seriously," said John R. Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who was a top arms control official in Bush's first term.
But advocates of engagement have accused critics of trying to sabotage the talks. China on Monday abruptly postponed a round of six-party talks scheduled to begin this week, but U.S. officials now say the talks should start again Thursday.
Some North Korean experts said they are puzzled why, if the reports are true, Pyongyang would jeopardize the hard-won deal with the United States and the other four countries. "It does not make any sense at all in the context of the last nine months," said Charles "Jack" Pritchard, a former U.S. negotiator with North Korea and now president of the Korea Economic Institute.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Syrian "democratic process"
From The Australian, September 21, 2007, by Martin Chulov, Middle East correspondent:
A MASSIVE bomb that killed anti-Syrian politician Antoine Ghanem yesterday has left Lebanon's shaky Government clinging to power through four besieged MPs, days before a parliamentary sitting to elect a new president.
The explosion, which killed seven others and injured 56 in a Christian neighbourhood of East Beirut, was the fourth assassination of a government MP since late 2004, and poses the most serious risk to Lebanon's stability since the slaying of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005.
Lebanon's governing parliamentary bloc blamed Syria for the blast and insisted it was an attempt to deliver the fragile nation back to Syrian interests, which were forced to leave Lebanon amid public protests after the Hariri killing.
....Eight anti-Syrian figures have been slain since late 2004, and a ninth, government MP, Marwan Hamadi, narrowly survived a bomb attack.
Hours after yesterday's blast, government MPs insisted the September 25 sitting of parliament to elect a replacement for President Emile Lahoud - the first session since last November - would go ahead.
Former president Amin Gemayel, head of the Christian Phalange Party, said Lebanon's democratic gains had been set back by the latest assassination. "It's not any more a question of presidential elections. It's a question of the survival of this country and democracy in the country that's at stake for the time being," he said. Mr Gemayel's son, Pierre, was assassinated by gunmen last November.
"I have never seen a more cowardly regime than that of (Syrian President) Bashar Assad's," said the head of the anti-Syrian Government bloc Saad Hariri. He blamed Mr Assad's regime for the death of Mr Ghanem, 64, and the killing of his father.....
....World leaders, including US President George W.Bush, quickly denounced the latest assassination but stopped short of directly accusing Syria. When pressed for a likely culprit, Mr Bush and other US officials pointed to "a tragic pattern" of attacks against champions of "an independent and democratic Lebanon".
The post of president in Lebanon is critical to the balance of the region. Lebanon's constitution stipulates that its president must be a Maronite Christian. Though largely a figurehead, the president also has a veto role. The post has traditionally been anointed by Syria, which served for 30 years as an overlord and maintains a sovereignty claim over the deeply divided nation.
Pro-Syrian Mr Lahoud is due to step down on November 23, and government MPs have seen his departure as an attempt to install one of their own - an appointment that would weaken the opposition's power-sharing bid and reorientate the presidency towards the West.
After refusing to convene parliament since last November, Pro-opposition Speaker Nabil Berri has recently promoted the nomination of a compromise candidate. However, the Hezbollah-led opposition has pledged to boycott a vote for any candidate it does not endorse. Such a move would prevent the necessary two-thirds quorum and derail indefinitely the appointment of Mr Lahoud's replacement.
Mr Lahoud has threatened to set up an alternative government if the Government presses its bid to install its own candidate, a move that could reignite sectarian conflict for the first time since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1991. If parliament is convened on schedule, the political horse-trading to follow will come under intense scrutiny across the Middle East. The US and Israel fear the re-establishment of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon, particularly set against a backdrop of rising tensions with Damascus's strong backer, Iran. Washington has supported the Siniora Government with aid and weapons to fight an al-Qa'ida insurgency.
Lebanon's government MPs, including Saad Hariri, have largely spent the northern summer outside of Lebanon, fearing for their safety. Mr Ghanem had returned to Beirut in recent days, in time for the sitting. After his death, the Government bloc holds 65 of the parliament's 128 seats, with backers outside the party holding another four, and the opposition 59.
A MASSIVE bomb that killed anti-Syrian politician Antoine Ghanem yesterday has left Lebanon's shaky Government clinging to power through four besieged MPs, days before a parliamentary sitting to elect a new president.
The explosion, which killed seven others and injured 56 in a Christian neighbourhood of East Beirut, was the fourth assassination of a government MP since late 2004, and poses the most serious risk to Lebanon's stability since the slaying of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005.
Lebanon's governing parliamentary bloc blamed Syria for the blast and insisted it was an attempt to deliver the fragile nation back to Syrian interests, which were forced to leave Lebanon amid public protests after the Hariri killing.
....Eight anti-Syrian figures have been slain since late 2004, and a ninth, government MP, Marwan Hamadi, narrowly survived a bomb attack.
Hours after yesterday's blast, government MPs insisted the September 25 sitting of parliament to elect a replacement for President Emile Lahoud - the first session since last November - would go ahead.
Former president Amin Gemayel, head of the Christian Phalange Party, said Lebanon's democratic gains had been set back by the latest assassination. "It's not any more a question of presidential elections. It's a question of the survival of this country and democracy in the country that's at stake for the time being," he said. Mr Gemayel's son, Pierre, was assassinated by gunmen last November.
"I have never seen a more cowardly regime than that of (Syrian President) Bashar Assad's," said the head of the anti-Syrian Government bloc Saad Hariri. He blamed Mr Assad's regime for the death of Mr Ghanem, 64, and the killing of his father.....
....World leaders, including US President George W.Bush, quickly denounced the latest assassination but stopped short of directly accusing Syria. When pressed for a likely culprit, Mr Bush and other US officials pointed to "a tragic pattern" of attacks against champions of "an independent and democratic Lebanon".
The post of president in Lebanon is critical to the balance of the region. Lebanon's constitution stipulates that its president must be a Maronite Christian. Though largely a figurehead, the president also has a veto role. The post has traditionally been anointed by Syria, which served for 30 years as an overlord and maintains a sovereignty claim over the deeply divided nation.
Pro-Syrian Mr Lahoud is due to step down on November 23, and government MPs have seen his departure as an attempt to install one of their own - an appointment that would weaken the opposition's power-sharing bid and reorientate the presidency towards the West.
After refusing to convene parliament since last November, Pro-opposition Speaker Nabil Berri has recently promoted the nomination of a compromise candidate. However, the Hezbollah-led opposition has pledged to boycott a vote for any candidate it does not endorse. Such a move would prevent the necessary two-thirds quorum and derail indefinitely the appointment of Mr Lahoud's replacement.
Mr Lahoud has threatened to set up an alternative government if the Government presses its bid to install its own candidate, a move that could reignite sectarian conflict for the first time since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1991. If parliament is convened on schedule, the political horse-trading to follow will come under intense scrutiny across the Middle East. The US and Israel fear the re-establishment of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon, particularly set against a backdrop of rising tensions with Damascus's strong backer, Iran. Washington has supported the Siniora Government with aid and weapons to fight an al-Qa'ida insurgency.
Lebanon's government MPs, including Saad Hariri, have largely spent the northern summer outside of Lebanon, fearing for their safety. Mr Ghanem had returned to Beirut in recent days, in time for the sitting. After his death, the Government bloc holds 65 of the parliament's 128 seats, with backers outside the party holding another four, and the opposition 59.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Bush setting America up for war with Iran
From The telegraph (UK), 17/09/2007, by Philip Sherwell in New York and Tim Shipman in Washington:
Senior American intelligence and defence officials believe that President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking steps to place America on the path to war with Iran...
Pentagon planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran, amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran's nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.
Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.
Now it has emerged that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who has been pushing for a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her differences with Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military action.
....Senior officials believe Mr Bush's inner circle has decided he does not want to leave office without first ensuring that Iran is not capable of developing a nuclear weapon.....
Senior American intelligence and defence officials believe that President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking steps to place America on the path to war with Iran...
Pentagon planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran, amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran's nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.
Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.
Now it has emerged that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who has been pushing for a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her differences with Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military action.
....Senior officials believe Mr Bush's inner circle has decided he does not want to leave office without first ensuring that Iran is not capable of developing a nuclear weapon.....
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Power Politics Needed
From GLORIA, September 10, 2007, by Barry Rubin [my own emphasis added - SL]:
... Iran recently held a summit meeting bringing together Palestinian leaders. Hamas was there, of course, and Islamic Jihad, too. No surprise that. But there was someone else participating in the gathering: Farouq Qaddumi.....veteran Fatah and PLO bureaucrat who now heads the former group. He is one of three men--the other two were Yasir Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas--who represented Fatah on the PLO Executive Committee. He has never accepted even the 1993 Oslo agreement. In most ways, he is more representative of Fatah leadership than the Palestinian Authority's relatively moderate two heads, Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad.
What was Qaddumi doing in Tehran? Well, he has long been an ally of Syria which is Tehran's closest ally. But there is something else going on here which is of historic importance and which shows the difference between reality and what is said in the Western media or governments. Not Egypt, not Saudi Arabia but Iran is now the mediator between Hamas and Fatah.
The Egyptians spent a lot of time negotiating with the two groups but never pushed very hard or achieved anything. The Saudis thought they had ensured cooperation with the recent Mecca agreement. But Hamas, another ally of Iran, used the deal to seize full power in the Gaza Strip and kick out Fatah altogether.
So it makes perfect sense for Palestinian leaders to see Iran holding the cards. If anyone is going to persuade Hamas to make up with Fatah it would be Tehran, the Islamist group's sponsor. Of course, Iran is not going to do it but it can play games with Fatah, perhaps find Fatah people who, in exchange for power and money, might accept second place as a junior Palestinian partner of Hamas and Tehran.
Perhaps you thought the United States is now Fatah's sponsor and good buddy. Well, Fatah is an equal-opportunity embezzler. Again, let me make clear my support for a strategy of talking with Fatah and helping it survive in the West Bank in exchange for its clamping down on terrorism and incitement. Fatah is preferable to Hamas. But a strong dose of cynicism and some tough bargaining is needed in this policy, which has been adopted by the United States, Israel, and (with a bit more ambiguity, yearning for the chance to appease Hamas) Europe.
.... U.S. policy .... has a new mantra, economic development....[However].....a combination of rewards (only in return for actual deeds) and punishments would be more effective. This is called power diplomacy and politicians or diplomats seem to understand it perfectly well except when it comes to the Middle East...... flattering Mahmoud Abbas, showering money and arms on Fatah, and thinking one can turn the West Bank into a showcase of economic progress isn't going to work. Nor will persuading the Arab world that America and Europe care about the Palestinians, want to give them a state, and don't like Israel.
A reasonable strategy requires showing how unprofitable it is to be an enemy while helping those on the other side only to the extent that they cooperate. It means not having to apologize but getting those who flout your interests to apologize to you. It requires taking into account regional realities rather than sentimentalizing them into morality plays. It includes not expecting to solve neatly problems which have no solution.
... Iran recently held a summit meeting bringing together Palestinian leaders. Hamas was there, of course, and Islamic Jihad, too. No surprise that. But there was someone else participating in the gathering: Farouq Qaddumi.....veteran Fatah and PLO bureaucrat who now heads the former group. He is one of three men--the other two were Yasir Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas--who represented Fatah on the PLO Executive Committee. He has never accepted even the 1993 Oslo agreement. In most ways, he is more representative of Fatah leadership than the Palestinian Authority's relatively moderate two heads, Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad.
What was Qaddumi doing in Tehran? Well, he has long been an ally of Syria which is Tehran's closest ally. But there is something else going on here which is of historic importance and which shows the difference between reality and what is said in the Western media or governments. Not Egypt, not Saudi Arabia but Iran is now the mediator between Hamas and Fatah.
The Egyptians spent a lot of time negotiating with the two groups but never pushed very hard or achieved anything. The Saudis thought they had ensured cooperation with the recent Mecca agreement. But Hamas, another ally of Iran, used the deal to seize full power in the Gaza Strip and kick out Fatah altogether.
So it makes perfect sense for Palestinian leaders to see Iran holding the cards. If anyone is going to persuade Hamas to make up with Fatah it would be Tehran, the Islamist group's sponsor. Of course, Iran is not going to do it but it can play games with Fatah, perhaps find Fatah people who, in exchange for power and money, might accept second place as a junior Palestinian partner of Hamas and Tehran.
Perhaps you thought the United States is now Fatah's sponsor and good buddy. Well, Fatah is an equal-opportunity embezzler. Again, let me make clear my support for a strategy of talking with Fatah and helping it survive in the West Bank in exchange for its clamping down on terrorism and incitement. Fatah is preferable to Hamas. But a strong dose of cynicism and some tough bargaining is needed in this policy, which has been adopted by the United States, Israel, and (with a bit more ambiguity, yearning for the chance to appease Hamas) Europe.
.... U.S. policy .... has a new mantra, economic development....[However].....a combination of rewards (only in return for actual deeds) and punishments would be more effective. This is called power diplomacy and politicians or diplomats seem to understand it perfectly well except when it comes to the Middle East...... flattering Mahmoud Abbas, showering money and arms on Fatah, and thinking one can turn the West Bank into a showcase of economic progress isn't going to work. Nor will persuading the Arab world that America and Europe care about the Palestinians, want to give them a state, and don't like Israel.
A reasonable strategy requires showing how unprofitable it is to be an enemy while helping those on the other side only to the extent that they cooperate. It means not having to apologize but getting those who flout your interests to apologize to you. It requires taking into account regional realities rather than sentimentalizing them into morality plays. It includes not expecting to solve neatly problems which have no solution.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Israel targeted arms destined for Hezbollah
From Haaretz, 12/9/07, by Barak Ravid, Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel:
Israel targeted weapons intended for delivery to Hezbollah inside Syria a week ago, the CNN television network reported Tuesday. Senior correspondent Christian Amanpour, citing Middle Eastern and Washington sources, said aircraft and ground forces, which directed the planes to their target, took part in the operation. The attack left "a big hole in the desert," the report said.
CNN quoted American sources as saying that the air strike had targeted a weapons shipment from Syria to Hezbollah, or from Iran to Hezbollah, passing through Syria. "The Israeli government is very happy with the success of the operation," CNN reported, citing sources both in the United States and the region. U.S. government and military sources said they were "happy to have Israel convey to both Syria and Iran the message that they can get in and out and strike when necessary."
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's aides said they were not interested in commenting on the incident....
.... Syria complained Tuesday to the United Nations about "aggression and violation of sovereignty," the country's ambassador to the UN said. Syria's UN envoy, Bashar al-Jaafari .....said Israel had violated Syrian air space and dropped munitions. But he denied that Israel had landed troops on the ground inside Syria. "This is absolutely not true," he said, adding the reports were an attempt to show that Israel could land troops wherever it wants.
.... The silence of the Untied States, Europe and especially the Arab world .... raises questions. Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia did not denounce Israel, nor did they issue any statement on the subject. The only countries who expressed solidarity with Syria were Iran and North Korea. Russia issued a condemnation of sorts. Turkey issued a critical statement and requested clarifications. In Ankara's case, however, its close strategic cooperation with Israel makes it unlikely the Turks were really surprised by the incident.
Israel targeted weapons intended for delivery to Hezbollah inside Syria a week ago, the CNN television network reported Tuesday. Senior correspondent Christian Amanpour, citing Middle Eastern and Washington sources, said aircraft and ground forces, which directed the planes to their target, took part in the operation. The attack left "a big hole in the desert," the report said.
CNN quoted American sources as saying that the air strike had targeted a weapons shipment from Syria to Hezbollah, or from Iran to Hezbollah, passing through Syria. "The Israeli government is very happy with the success of the operation," CNN reported, citing sources both in the United States and the region. U.S. government and military sources said they were "happy to have Israel convey to both Syria and Iran the message that they can get in and out and strike when necessary."
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's aides said they were not interested in commenting on the incident....
.... Syria complained Tuesday to the United Nations about "aggression and violation of sovereignty," the country's ambassador to the UN said. Syria's UN envoy, Bashar al-Jaafari .....said Israel had violated Syrian air space and dropped munitions. But he denied that Israel had landed troops on the ground inside Syria. "This is absolutely not true," he said, adding the reports were an attempt to show that Israel could land troops wherever it wants.
.... The silence of the Untied States, Europe and especially the Arab world .... raises questions. Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia did not denounce Israel, nor did they issue any statement on the subject. The only countries who expressed solidarity with Syria were Iran and North Korea. Russia issued a condemnation of sorts. Turkey issued a critical statement and requested clarifications. In Ankara's case, however, its close strategic cooperation with Israel makes it unlikely the Turks were really surprised by the incident.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Toward a year of renewal
From The JPost, by Isi Leibler, September 11, 2007:
There is no denying that 5767 was another awful year. But as we usher in the new year on Wednesday evening, let us restrain our masochistic inclinations and - without detracting from the very real threats confronting us - end the prevailing atmosphere of gloom and doom.
The existential threat from a nuclear Iran is very real. But New York, London and all major capital cities are no less subject to nuclear terrorism than Tel Aviv. Besides, notwithstanding the messianic delusions of Ahmadinejad, the Iranians would hesitate before employing nuclear weapons against a state that has the capacity to respond in kind. The Olmert government should perhaps place greater emphasis on the fact that that the distance between Teheran to Tel Aviv is the same as that from Tel Aviv to Teheran.
Despite daily predictions of an impending war, our position today is unquestionably better than in the years immediately following the Oslo catastrophe. And certainly there is no comparison to 1967 or 1973, when we genuinely faced annihilation.
In time, the Hamas putsch in Gaza may even prove to have been a blessing in disguise. After all, "moderate" Fatah terrorists murdered far more Israelis than did Hamas. The difference was that duplicitous Fatah leaders - including Mahmoud Abbas - paid lip service to "peace" while continuing to sanctify terror. In contrast, Hamas explicitly proclaims its objective of destroying Israel. In doing so, it deprives apologists for the Palestinians from promoting moral equivalence, babbling about cycles of violence, and obfuscating the distinctions between victims and killers.
ALTHOUGH Hizbullah has not dared to fire a single missile against us since the end of hostilities, we still remain under the cloud of the disastrous Second Lebanon War. But we must remind ourselves that the failures were due to our inept leaders, not the people, who displayed extraordinary courage and determination. And if our military leaders had become complacent, there is no doubt that the IDF is now undergoing a dramatic reformation.
Besides if, God forbid, unlike the conflict with Hizbullah, we were to face a full scale war, it would be with our enemies' knowledge that we have the firepower capacity to pulverize them.
Indeed, history may well define the Second Lebanon War as a wake-up call which shook us from our lethargy and obliged us to restore the IDF's place as one of the world's most outstanding citizen armies. Had we not confronted Hizbullah, we would to this day probably still be hesitating about employing deterrence. Furthermore, an unprepared IDF would at a later stage inevitably have faced a tougher confrontation with far more advanced adversaries, which might have culminated in disaster.
IN THE Diaspora, anti-Semitism continues to mushroom. Yet we now realize that the absence of anti-Semitism in the wake of the Shoah was illusory. When the opportunity arose to demonize Israel as a surrogate for individual Jews, anti-Semites swarmed out of the closet. But to suggest that the pariah status of Jews in some Diaspora communities represents existential threats comparable to the 1930s is palpable nonsense.
Today, a Jewish state exists which has the capacity to defend and grant haven to Jews everywhere.
True, within Israel we still face serious problems. But one of our greatest weaknesses is an inclination to exaggerate shortcomings and failures.
Corruption did indeed reach obscene levels. But the tide has unquestionably turned. When a president, a prime minister and the most powerful citizens of the nation are obliged to undergo more intense scrutiny than common citizens, it signals that people power is becoming effective.
The ongoing presence of failed political leaders is Israel's Achilles heel. But their days are numbered. More importantly, a sea change in public opinion has occurred; most notably there is a belated recognition that the greatest threat to the nation emanates from within.
Israelis are beginning to appreciate that secular draft dodgers, and the commitment and volunteerism prevailing in religious Zionist circles, are all by-products of contrasting educational systems.
The dilution of Jewish values and national pride and the infiltration of post-Zionist ideas have paved the way for post-modernism, hedonism and nihilism. Now there are calls for strengthening Jewish heritage and Zionism within the educational system. If that leads toward reinforcing Jewish identity and national self-esteem among the next generation of Israelis, it will neutralize the greatest threat to our long-term future.
ON ROSH HASHANA it is incumbent to remind ourselves that despite all our problems, we remain the most fortunate and blessed Jewish generation in over 2,000 years of exile and persecution, and that Israel still stands out as the greatest success story of our century past.
Who could have dreamed that half a century after Hitler, the descendents of penniless Holocaust survivors and refugees from Arab countries would succeed in creating a vibrant Jewish state with one of the most powerful armies in the world, not to mention a thriving metropolis and dynamic economy?
There was never a period in Jewish history when we did not face adversaries. Yet we always triumphed.
As we enter 5768 and move toward celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary, we share no illusions about achieving peace in our time. However we can exult in the realization that we are better able to defend ourselves against those who seek our destruction than at any time in Jewish history.
Instead of groaning, we should concentrate on creating a just society based on Jewish values and endeavor to achieve our original goal of becoming a Light unto the Nations.
There is no denying that 5767 was another awful year. But as we usher in the new year on Wednesday evening, let us restrain our masochistic inclinations and - without detracting from the very real threats confronting us - end the prevailing atmosphere of gloom and doom.
The existential threat from a nuclear Iran is very real. But New York, London and all major capital cities are no less subject to nuclear terrorism than Tel Aviv. Besides, notwithstanding the messianic delusions of Ahmadinejad, the Iranians would hesitate before employing nuclear weapons against a state that has the capacity to respond in kind. The Olmert government should perhaps place greater emphasis on the fact that that the distance between Teheran to Tel Aviv is the same as that from Tel Aviv to Teheran.
Despite daily predictions of an impending war, our position today is unquestionably better than in the years immediately following the Oslo catastrophe. And certainly there is no comparison to 1967 or 1973, when we genuinely faced annihilation.
In time, the Hamas putsch in Gaza may even prove to have been a blessing in disguise. After all, "moderate" Fatah terrorists murdered far more Israelis than did Hamas. The difference was that duplicitous Fatah leaders - including Mahmoud Abbas - paid lip service to "peace" while continuing to sanctify terror. In contrast, Hamas explicitly proclaims its objective of destroying Israel. In doing so, it deprives apologists for the Palestinians from promoting moral equivalence, babbling about cycles of violence, and obfuscating the distinctions between victims and killers.
ALTHOUGH Hizbullah has not dared to fire a single missile against us since the end of hostilities, we still remain under the cloud of the disastrous Second Lebanon War. But we must remind ourselves that the failures were due to our inept leaders, not the people, who displayed extraordinary courage and determination. And if our military leaders had become complacent, there is no doubt that the IDF is now undergoing a dramatic reformation.
Besides if, God forbid, unlike the conflict with Hizbullah, we were to face a full scale war, it would be with our enemies' knowledge that we have the firepower capacity to pulverize them.
Indeed, history may well define the Second Lebanon War as a wake-up call which shook us from our lethargy and obliged us to restore the IDF's place as one of the world's most outstanding citizen armies. Had we not confronted Hizbullah, we would to this day probably still be hesitating about employing deterrence. Furthermore, an unprepared IDF would at a later stage inevitably have faced a tougher confrontation with far more advanced adversaries, which might have culminated in disaster.
IN THE Diaspora, anti-Semitism continues to mushroom. Yet we now realize that the absence of anti-Semitism in the wake of the Shoah was illusory. When the opportunity arose to demonize Israel as a surrogate for individual Jews, anti-Semites swarmed out of the closet. But to suggest that the pariah status of Jews in some Diaspora communities represents existential threats comparable to the 1930s is palpable nonsense.
Today, a Jewish state exists which has the capacity to defend and grant haven to Jews everywhere.
True, within Israel we still face serious problems. But one of our greatest weaknesses is an inclination to exaggerate shortcomings and failures.
Corruption did indeed reach obscene levels. But the tide has unquestionably turned. When a president, a prime minister and the most powerful citizens of the nation are obliged to undergo more intense scrutiny than common citizens, it signals that people power is becoming effective.
The ongoing presence of failed political leaders is Israel's Achilles heel. But their days are numbered. More importantly, a sea change in public opinion has occurred; most notably there is a belated recognition that the greatest threat to the nation emanates from within.
Israelis are beginning to appreciate that secular draft dodgers, and the commitment and volunteerism prevailing in religious Zionist circles, are all by-products of contrasting educational systems.
The dilution of Jewish values and national pride and the infiltration of post-Zionist ideas have paved the way for post-modernism, hedonism and nihilism. Now there are calls for strengthening Jewish heritage and Zionism within the educational system. If that leads toward reinforcing Jewish identity and national self-esteem among the next generation of Israelis, it will neutralize the greatest threat to our long-term future.
ON ROSH HASHANA it is incumbent to remind ourselves that despite all our problems, we remain the most fortunate and blessed Jewish generation in over 2,000 years of exile and persecution, and that Israel still stands out as the greatest success story of our century past.
Who could have dreamed that half a century after Hitler, the descendents of penniless Holocaust survivors and refugees from Arab countries would succeed in creating a vibrant Jewish state with one of the most powerful armies in the world, not to mention a thriving metropolis and dynamic economy?
There was never a period in Jewish history when we did not face adversaries. Yet we always triumphed.
As we enter 5768 and move toward celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary, we share no illusions about achieving peace in our time. However we can exult in the realization that we are better able to defend ourselves against those who seek our destruction than at any time in Jewish history.
Instead of groaning, we should concentrate on creating a just society based on Jewish values and endeavor to achieve our original goal of becoming a Light unto the Nations.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Islamists slip in Moroccan elections
From The Christian Science Monitor, September 10, 2007, by Jill Carroll:
A Friday vote was seen as a regional test for political Islam in the Arab world.
CAIRO
The Islamists had expected to make unprecedented gains in Morocco's parliamentary vote Friday. Even though political parties based on religion are illegal, the officially nonreligious but Islamic-inspired Justice and Development Party (PJD) was predicted to become the largest bloc in the 325-member chamber, as it had gained support by campaigning to tackle corruption in the north African country's government.
Instead, the PJD garnered only about five seats, for a total of 47, and came in second, behind the right-leaning and secular Istiqlal (Independence) party, which won 52 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to preliminary results released Saturday.
The surprisingly low showing for the PJD was a blow to the party's long-held strategy of taking a carefully measured path to power in a region with a history of harsh crackdowns on Islamist political groups on the verge of electoral success. "Islamist parties and governments are watching very closely the Moroccan elections. Moderate Islamist parties in Algeria, Egypt, Syria, and some Gulf countries will have to be part of any reformist agenda in the region," wrote Abdeslam Maghraoui, visiting associate professor in political science at Duke University in Durham, N.C., in an e-mailed response to questions.
The PJD has gained support in recent years by tapping disillusionment with a government seen as removed from voters' needs, focusing on the poor and jobless youths. Nearly 5 million of Morocco's 33 million people live on less than $2 a day, according to the World Bank.
Across the Arab world, Islamist groups of various stripes have become the most potent opposition forces to the authoritarian governments of the region......
....The PJD's showing might be a sign the party is struggling to maintain its tightrope walk between participating in the political system while not being contaminated by the system's image for corruption and inability to bring about changes Moroccans want.
Morocco has been held up as one of the most reform-minded nations in the Arab world. It has a diversity of civil-society groups, has passed a code of women's rights, and, accord-ing to observers, held relatively fair elections in 2002....
A Friday vote was seen as a regional test for political Islam in the Arab world.
CAIRO
The Islamists had expected to make unprecedented gains in Morocco's parliamentary vote Friday. Even though political parties based on religion are illegal, the officially nonreligious but Islamic-inspired Justice and Development Party (PJD) was predicted to become the largest bloc in the 325-member chamber, as it had gained support by campaigning to tackle corruption in the north African country's government.
Instead, the PJD garnered only about five seats, for a total of 47, and came in second, behind the right-leaning and secular Istiqlal (Independence) party, which won 52 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to preliminary results released Saturday.
The surprisingly low showing for the PJD was a blow to the party's long-held strategy of taking a carefully measured path to power in a region with a history of harsh crackdowns on Islamist political groups on the verge of electoral success. "Islamist parties and governments are watching very closely the Moroccan elections. Moderate Islamist parties in Algeria, Egypt, Syria, and some Gulf countries will have to be part of any reformist agenda in the region," wrote Abdeslam Maghraoui, visiting associate professor in political science at Duke University in Durham, N.C., in an e-mailed response to questions.
The PJD has gained support in recent years by tapping disillusionment with a government seen as removed from voters' needs, focusing on the poor and jobless youths. Nearly 5 million of Morocco's 33 million people live on less than $2 a day, according to the World Bank.
Across the Arab world, Islamist groups of various stripes have become the most potent opposition forces to the authoritarian governments of the region......
....The PJD's showing might be a sign the party is struggling to maintain its tightrope walk between participating in the political system while not being contaminated by the system's image for corruption and inability to bring about changes Moroccans want.
Morocco has been held up as one of the most reform-minded nations in the Arab world. It has a diversity of civil-society groups, has passed a code of women's rights, and, accord-ing to observers, held relatively fair elections in 2002....
Students suspected of spying for Iran
From The Australian, by Richard Kerbaj September 10, 2007:
NATIONAL security agents are closely monitoring Iranians at Australian universities, fearing some of the students are doubling as spies and reporting to Tehran.
State and federal security authorities are also keeping a close eye on Iranian students in Australia who are interested in becoming residents or citizens, amid growing suspicions that some may be intent on establishing an espionage foothold.
It is understood their concerns about Iranian students were sparked by calls to the National Security Hotline and information from local Persian leaders.
....The number of Iranian students studying in Australia has multiplied almost five-fold in the past five years. Most study engineering and surveying.
....Australia's Iranian community of 25,000 is largely made up of Shia Muslim migrants who left their homeland after 1979 to escape the Islamic revolution. Security sources said the Iranian Government was intent on monitoring them, fearing it was being undermined by their ideological and financial support of groups opposed to Tehran's regime.
Persian Cultural Foundation of Australia president Homer Abramian accused the Iranian regime of sending its agents to Australia under the guise of students, in some instances, and in other cases paying students to report back on local community affairs.
....Iranian youth leader Nosrat Hosseini said she believed some international Iranian students in Melbourne were spying on local community members opposed to the Tehran Government.
The Melbourne-based secretary of the Iranian Womens Association said the students often used the Faulkner Mosque, a Shia place of worship in Melbourne's north, as an entry point to community affairs and functions. She said the students were often interested in finding out information about the general sentiment held by the local community towards the Iranian regime.....
NATIONAL security agents are closely monitoring Iranians at Australian universities, fearing some of the students are doubling as spies and reporting to Tehran.
State and federal security authorities are also keeping a close eye on Iranian students in Australia who are interested in becoming residents or citizens, amid growing suspicions that some may be intent on establishing an espionage foothold.
It is understood their concerns about Iranian students were sparked by calls to the National Security Hotline and information from local Persian leaders.
....The number of Iranian students studying in Australia has multiplied almost five-fold in the past five years. Most study engineering and surveying.
....Australia's Iranian community of 25,000 is largely made up of Shia Muslim migrants who left their homeland after 1979 to escape the Islamic revolution. Security sources said the Iranian Government was intent on monitoring them, fearing it was being undermined by their ideological and financial support of groups opposed to Tehran's regime.
Persian Cultural Foundation of Australia president Homer Abramian accused the Iranian regime of sending its agents to Australia under the guise of students, in some instances, and in other cases paying students to report back on local community affairs.
....Iranian youth leader Nosrat Hosseini said she believed some international Iranian students in Melbourne were spying on local community members opposed to the Tehran Government.
The Melbourne-based secretary of the Iranian Womens Association said the students often used the Faulkner Mosque, a Shia place of worship in Melbourne's north, as an entry point to community affairs and functions. She said the students were often interested in finding out information about the general sentiment held by the local community towards the Iranian regime.....
Can Iran be stopped?
From Ynet News, 10/9/07, by Zalman Shoval, former Israel ambassador to the US:
Regional summit likely to establish Tehran's hegemony over entire Middle East
A new pessimistic report jointly compiled by 16 American intelligence agencies noted that all efforts to halt or impede Iran's nuclear development have failed, as have the measures to end the support Tehran is granting various terror organizations in the Middle East, including Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Shiite terrorists in Iraq.
American intelligence agencies and other sources found that the economic measures the international community has adopted to coerce Iran to change its ways are futile. Although Iranian banks found it temporarily difficult to close international transactions, it appears that they have overcome the hurdle.
Even trading between oil-rich Iran and other countries of the world hasn’t significantly slowed down, if at all. Although the initiatives taken to halt or cancel direct and indirect investments in the Iranian economy bore some fruit, they were insufficient to undermine the regime's stability.
American intelligence has reached the conclusion that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue to be the undisputed leader of his country. Of course it can be argued that this implies that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the supreme ruler of his country, but there is no indication that there is any gap between the political and military objectives of the abovementioned two.
The US and its western allies have announced their plans to impose further sanctions on Iran via the Security Council within the coming weeks. However, based on past experience and considering the new political line adopted by Russia, these sanctions are unlikely to have any effect.
Hamas rule in Gaza brings Iran closer
Another player that is not exactly filling a positive role regarding Iran's nuclear development is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA,) which has been appointed by the UN to handle the world's nuclear issues.
It's hard to shake off the impression that this organization is cooperating, albeit out of helplessness, with Iran's delusional games. This is how the new agreement was reached, according to which within the "next few months" Tehran will provide additional information regarding its nuclear plans, as if there is any doubt as to the real nature of these plans.
In addition to the direct threat that a nuclear Iran poses to Israel, Iran's strategic plans to penetrate our neighbors presents other immediate implications. The Gaza Strip under Hamas rule has already become the Ayatollahs' front line, and the West Bank may follow suit. If the reports regarding the Israeli government's intentions to hand over close to 100 percent of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians, including a "safe crossing" from Gaza, come true, Iran will be here – and not only in the ideological sense.
Government spokespersons will argue that that the Israeli and American support given to Mahmoud Abbas and the plans for the establishment of a Palestinian state are aimed at preventing such an eventuality, but in fact there is no such guarantee.
The theory guiding both Jerusalem and Washington is that the "moderate" Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia - due to fear of Iran's intentions - will coerce the Palestinians to peacefully settle the conflict with Israel. Yet judging by the statements made by Arab spokespersons or by the "Arab Peace Plan," which is likely to constitute the focal point at the international conference, its real intentions are to push Arab unity into demanding unilateral concessions from Israel.
Obviously Tehran will publicly condemn the conference, but deep down it will rejoice vis-Ã -vis the steps that are likely to pave the way to establishing its hegemony over the entire Middle East.
Regional summit likely to establish Tehran's hegemony over entire Middle East
A new pessimistic report jointly compiled by 16 American intelligence agencies noted that all efforts to halt or impede Iran's nuclear development have failed, as have the measures to end the support Tehran is granting various terror organizations in the Middle East, including Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Shiite terrorists in Iraq.
American intelligence agencies and other sources found that the economic measures the international community has adopted to coerce Iran to change its ways are futile. Although Iranian banks found it temporarily difficult to close international transactions, it appears that they have overcome the hurdle.
Even trading between oil-rich Iran and other countries of the world hasn’t significantly slowed down, if at all. Although the initiatives taken to halt or cancel direct and indirect investments in the Iranian economy bore some fruit, they were insufficient to undermine the regime's stability.
American intelligence has reached the conclusion that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue to be the undisputed leader of his country. Of course it can be argued that this implies that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the supreme ruler of his country, but there is no indication that there is any gap between the political and military objectives of the abovementioned two.
The US and its western allies have announced their plans to impose further sanctions on Iran via the Security Council within the coming weeks. However, based on past experience and considering the new political line adopted by Russia, these sanctions are unlikely to have any effect.
Hamas rule in Gaza brings Iran closer
Another player that is not exactly filling a positive role regarding Iran's nuclear development is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA,) which has been appointed by the UN to handle the world's nuclear issues.
It's hard to shake off the impression that this organization is cooperating, albeit out of helplessness, with Iran's delusional games. This is how the new agreement was reached, according to which within the "next few months" Tehran will provide additional information regarding its nuclear plans, as if there is any doubt as to the real nature of these plans.
In addition to the direct threat that a nuclear Iran poses to Israel, Iran's strategic plans to penetrate our neighbors presents other immediate implications. The Gaza Strip under Hamas rule has already become the Ayatollahs' front line, and the West Bank may follow suit. If the reports regarding the Israeli government's intentions to hand over close to 100 percent of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians, including a "safe crossing" from Gaza, come true, Iran will be here – and not only in the ideological sense.
Government spokespersons will argue that that the Israeli and American support given to Mahmoud Abbas and the plans for the establishment of a Palestinian state are aimed at preventing such an eventuality, but in fact there is no such guarantee.
The theory guiding both Jerusalem and Washington is that the "moderate" Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia - due to fear of Iran's intentions - will coerce the Palestinians to peacefully settle the conflict with Israel. Yet judging by the statements made by Arab spokespersons or by the "Arab Peace Plan," which is likely to constitute the focal point at the international conference, its real intentions are to push Arab unity into demanding unilateral concessions from Israel.
Obviously Tehran will publicly condemn the conference, but deep down it will rejoice vis-Ã -vis the steps that are likely to pave the way to establishing its hegemony over the entire Middle East.
Strategic Moves
From DEBKAfile, September 10, 2007:
Two US carrier-strike groups are bound for Persian Gulf region, bringing number back to three
... from the third week of July, the only American strike force- carrier in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea region was the USS Enterprise. By the end of September, it will be joined by the USS Nimitz and the USS Truman Strike Groups.... three American naval, air and marine forces will again confront Iranian shores at a time of crisis in the military and civilian leadership of Iran - signaled by the abrupt change of Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders, rising Israel-Syrian tensions and a troubled situation in Lebanon.
....In the last week of August, the USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group took up position opposite the Lebanese coast amid trepidation over the September presidential election....aboard the group’s vessels are members of the 22nds Marine special operations-capable Expeditionary Unit, who are ready to execute landings on Lebanese beaches.
Two US carrier-strike groups are bound for Persian Gulf region, bringing number back to three
... from the third week of July, the only American strike force- carrier in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea region was the USS Enterprise. By the end of September, it will be joined by the USS Nimitz and the USS Truman Strike Groups.... three American naval, air and marine forces will again confront Iranian shores at a time of crisis in the military and civilian leadership of Iran - signaled by the abrupt change of Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders, rising Israel-Syrian tensions and a troubled situation in Lebanon.
....In the last week of August, the USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group took up position opposite the Lebanese coast amid trepidation over the September presidential election....aboard the group’s vessels are members of the 22nds Marine special operations-capable Expeditionary Unit, who are ready to execute landings on Lebanese beaches.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)