So Many Problems, So Few Solutions

...an exasperated round-up, from GLORIA, by Barry Rubin February 17, 2008 [my own emphasis added - SL]:

The Middle East is a region where so many things seem to happen, so little appears to change, and far too much is said about it all....

...in March there will be elections in Iran....there is an element of pluralism since the ruling elite itself is so fractionalized. An election could shift more power away from the ultra-extremist president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, making Iran marginally less dangerous. But it cannot turn Tehran toward a new course in which it would give up its regional ambitions, sponsorship of terrorism, or drive toward nuclear weapons. The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

In ...[the Palestinian Authority]... the internal factors for positive change are even more limited. Fatah has talked about having a party congress in March, which might or might not happen. The existing PA leadership lacks either the power or interest for clamping down on incitement to terrorism or an anti-corruption drive. The wider Fatah leadership actually embraces extremism and looting. Neither seems inclined to share power with a "young guard" leadership which might be more honest but is also, if anything, more radical. Not much hope can be expected there. The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

As for Hamas, while factions seem to exist there are no moderates in sight. Outside observers are determined to credit Hamas with a victory in the Gaza Strip. Yet it is ...not gained by themselves but given by those who should be their adversaries. In fact, the Egyptian border is again closed, with the Cairo government more determined (if still not determined enough) to control its own territory. Hamas's policy is merely running Gaza into the ground a bit more slowly. Still, the most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

Regarding Lebanon, a key ingredient of any solution is ...moving ahead on the international tribunal investigating Damascus's involvement in murders there of peaceful politicians and journalists. ...this effort is advancing slowly, yet is largely overshadowed publicly by outspoken testimonies from too many naןve Westerners about how moderate the Syrian dictatorship claims to be..... Syria has good reasons to believe that the next U.S. president will reverse course and appease--I mean, engage--the regime. The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

...In the Middle East, there are all too many things warranting precautions and vigilance....[and the necessary international pressure is absent ...]