From the ABC "PM" program - Monday, 16 June , 2008 18:27:00, with Reporter: Mark Colvin and Ehud Ya'ari, Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel Two television:
(Press here to listen to a recording of the program.)
MARK COLVIN: A former UN arms inspector says an international smuggling ring has got hold of blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon. The former inspector, David Albright, says the ring may have sold the plans to governments including those of Iran and North Korea. His conclusions are included in a report on his four year investigation into the smuggling racket led by the Pakistani nuclear scientist, AQ Khan. Meanwhile Iran has rejected a six nation offer to stop enriching uranium. In Paris, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the US President George W. Bush jointly warned Iran against proceeding with what's widely believed to be its nuclear weapons programme. No country fears an Iranian bomb more than Israel. Ehud Ya'ari is Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel Two television. He's visiting Australia at the moment, and I asked him first about the leaked nuclear weapon blueprints.
EHUD YA'ARI: Yes we do think that the Iranians have the plans. We do believe that the Iranians were experimenting on weaponising, both for missile warheads and for bombs to be carried by airplanes. I'll put it like this, The Israelis are convinced, and I believe most intelligence services in the West, Europe the United States et cetera, share the same opinion that the Iranians have a parallel undercover programme for developing their nuclear military capabilities.
MARK COLVIN: So if they've got the plans, then what's to stop them making the warheads. You say two or three years before it gets really dangerous?
EHUD YA'ARI: The have major technological problems. We believe that the Iranians are lagging behind their own schedule in terms of enriching uranium. We believe that their nuclear reactor heavy water in Iraq, which is being constructed now, is well behind schedule.
MARK COLVIN: In Iraq?
EHUD YA'ARI: In Iran. In Iraq, it's called Iraq, the city is called Iraq. The Iranians are trying to go for the bomb in using two ways.
One is the enriched uranium through the system of centrifuges in (inaudible). And the other through the plutonium option through the construction of a heavy water reactor in the city of Iraq, which is about two hours drive south of Tehran. We believe both these tracks, both these tracks they are still behind their own schedule. And we believe that the Russians keep dragging their feet on the nuclear reactor in Bushehr, which as you know is not yet completed. And the uranium, the nuclear rods were not yet supplied for.
MARK COLVIN: What is the role of the Russians then?
EHUD YA'ARI: I think that for several years Israel is ? Americans, Europeans, tended to see the Russians as they bad guys in the uranium, nuclear story. In my assessment it's been proven now that in fact the Russians, a) sold the Iranians quite primitive nuclear technology, Chernobyl type reactor, b) that the Russians are dragging their feet about the construction of the reactor in Bushehr, which it had to be completed years ago. And three, that the Russians are not in hurry to activate that reactor.
Therefore by now everybody agrees that the main challenge is the Iranian attempt to get to nuclear capability through enrichment of uranium, and not through the Russian built reactor.
MARK COLVIN: There are some people who believe that either Israel or the United States is going to strike at Iran within the next few months, probably before President Bush leaves office. What do you think of that theory?
EHUD YA'ARI: Well my answer is that I certainly do not know the answer to that. I know that in the US there are those who are advocating a preventive strike against Iran.
But the main question there is would be what would be the Iranian reaction, not in terms of retaliation but whether a strike against Iranian nuclear installations will accelerate the pace of the Iranian nuclear programme, as happened for example with Iraq after Israelis have bombed in 1981, the Osirak reactor. As for Israel, once the Israelis will be, will reach the conclusion, and this has not happened yet, that the US is not going to strike Iran, then the Israelis faced with the possibility of a nuclear Iran will have to make their own decisions and I believe that we have had enough public statements by responsible Israelis officials to the effect that Israel cannot tolerate a nuclear threat from Iran, a country which states through its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that it's out to wipe out the sate of Israel, a country which is describing Israel as, in the language of their President, a dead man walking, and a stinking fish.
MARK COLVIN: But what could Israel do? Isn't it the case that Iran's nuclear programme is widely dispersed and in some cases very heavily protected, dug into the sides of mountains and so forth.
EHUD YA'ARI: Well here we are entering into the very sensitive area of what intelligence was gathered by Israel, the US, and other governments concerning the Iranian programme.
MARK COLVIN: But isn't it the case that you couldn't really hit as you did in Iraq with the Osirak reactor which you've mentioned, that you couldn't really hit one target and achieve anything major?
EHUD YA'ARI: For Israel certainly hitting Iraq ? Iran, Iran's nuclear problem on its won is a much more complex challenge, than hitting the Syrian reactor last September in al-Kibar or Iraqi reactor in 1981. And I can assure that Israel is not enthusiastic at all for the idea that they will have to take Iran on their own and then we know what would be the world comments and reactions to that. But still we may have a situation in which a responsible Israeli leadership will reach the conclusion that there is simply no other way.
MARK COLVIN: Because Ahmadinejad wants to wipe you off the map, has said so, and you're convinced the Iranian nuclear programme is aimed at Israel.
EHUD YA'ARI: Well we believe what the Iranian leaders are saying, we believe what we read in the Iranian press, we believe that the Iranians are out to try and mobilise the Arab world as well, into an effort to destroy the state of Israel. We have no reason to doubt that. It's a very complex and touchy problem. Luckily and fortunately, I would like to emphasise this, we believe, and I believe that I reflect the current thinking in Israel, that we have two or three years for efforts to get the Iranians through a system of sanctions and probably of [carrots] as well, into a reconsideration of their nuclear programme.
MARK COLVIN: Ehud Ya'ari, Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel Two television.
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