For an update on Iranian progress, see "ALARMING TEST RESULTS - Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year's End", from Spiegel Online, by Markus Becker ...
New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this year.
...When the US released a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) late last year, it seemed as though the danger of a mullah-bomb had passed....It didn't take long for experts to question the report's conclusion that Tehran was no longer interested in building the bomb. And now, a new computer simulation undertaken by European Union experts indicates that the NIE's time estimates might be dangerously inaccurate as well -- and that Iran might have enough fuel for a bomb much earlier than was previously thought.
As part of a project to improve control of nuclear materials, the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, Italy set up a detailed simulation of the centrifuges currently used by Iran in the Natanz nuclear facility to enrich uranium. The results look nothing like those reached by the US intelligence community.
For one scenario, the JRC scientists assumed the centrifuges in Natanz were operating at 100 percent efficiency. Were that the case, Iran could already have the 25 kilograms of highly enriched uranium necessary for an atomic device by the end of this year. Another scenario assumed a much lower efficiency -- just 25 percent. But even then, Iran would have produced enough uranium by the end of 2010....
.... the scientists at the Joint Research Centre are confident that their simulations are realistic. But, the group is quick to point out, they are theoretical. They don't make any claim to know whether Tehran is currently working toward the production of an atomic bomb.
Just why the new simulations came to such a different result than the National Intelligence Estimate issued by Washington is "a good question..." ...the US intelligence report focused solely on uranium enrichment done in secret and on possible steps taken toward the production of a bomb -- but not on Tehran's claimed civilian nuclear power program. But the line between civilian and military nuclear programs is a thin one, as a number of states have demonstrated. The atomic weapons programs in Israel, South Africa, Pakistan and China all grew out of civilian nuclear programs.
There are a number of indications that Iran isn't just interested in civilian nuclear technology. Just on Wednesday, an exiled Iranian opposition group published satellite images it claims shows an Iranian atomic bomb-making facility. In January, physicist Richard Garwin, who is also a US government adviser, calculated that the Natanz facility -- even were it to reach its maximum capacity of 54,000 centrifuges -- could not produce enough low-enriched uranium for a nuclear power facility. But, he said, the 3,000 centrifuges currently in operation could be sufficient to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon.
Iran's successful launch of a ballistic "research rocket" into space at the beginning of the month is likely doing little to reduce concerns. A rocket that can carry a satellite into space, after all, could be modified to carry a nuclear warhead....
....Many experts likewise believe that more checks need to be carried out in Iran itself -- a position that was not changed at all by the US intelligence report. "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," the report reads. But it is not this conclusion that is the most decisive one in the report. Rather, it was the final sentence: "We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so."
...and also "Security Council Weighs New Sanctions on Iran" from New York Times, by WARREN HOGE, February 22, 2008:
UNITED NATIONS — The Security Council on Thursday began formal consideration of a new resolution on Iran’s nuclear program that imposes restrictions on cargo to and from Iran, travel bans, the freezing of assets for people involved in the program and tightened monitoring of Iranian financial institutions.
Britain and France introduced the measure but said they would leave it open for “further substantive comments” from other Council members next week before pushing for a vote in March. The tactic was adopted to meet objections from Council members Indonesia, Libya, South Africa and Vietnam, who said they wanted to await the conclusions of a report by Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to be made public in Vienna on Friday before committing themselves to a final text.
The measure’s backers argue that the ElBaradei inquiry is about Iran’s atomic past, not its current activities, and should have no bearing on the draft. But they agreed to the continued consideration in the interests of obtaining unanimity among the 15 Council members.
The Council has twice voted unanimously to impose sanctions to stop Iran from enriching uranium, in December 2006 and March 2007. This third measure tightens and extends earlier ones but does not significantly broaden them....
...The new sanctions resolution would, for the first time, authorize inspections of cargo on aircraft and vessels, particularly those owned or operated by Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line.
The new measure would also ban all trade and supply of so-called dual-use items, materials and technologies that can have both civilian and military uses.
It also expands the list of Iranian officials and companies subject to sanctions.
In one recommendation that was softened in the drafting process to gain the unanimous support of the 15 Council members that the sponsors seek, the resolution calls on countries to “exercise vigilance” over the activities of financial institutions connected to Iranian banks, in particular Bank Melli and Bank Saderat and their branches and subsidiaries abroad. Western countries originally argued for an outright ban on transactions with both banks.
The text has the backing of the five permanent members of the Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — and Germany, a sponsor that is not a Council member.
Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador, said, “The assessment is that this is the best you can get, given the present composition of the Security Council.”
Arguing that Iran posed a direct threat to his country, he added, “I am not so naïve to think that this resolution will put an end to it.”....
... and finally "Foreign Ministry: IAEA report proves Iran still developing nuclear weapons" by Roni Sofer, 23/2/08:
Israel says report released Friday by International Atomic Energy Agency validates international community's concerns over Tehran's ongoing pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Iranian President Ahmadinejad touts report as 'victory over West,' says UN sanctions meaningless
Israel on Saturday issued its first official response to the report released on Friday by the International Atomic Energy Agency. "The IAEA report concludes that Iran is involved in activities key to the development of a nuclear weapon," the Foreign Affairs Ministry said in a written statement.
The report asserted that while Iran was being more open with IAEA monitors than before, Iran was still pursing means to speed up their enrichment of uranium....
....Foreign Affairs Minister Tzipi Livni has instructed Israeli embassies around the world to continue making the case for tightening sanctions against Iran. Israel has demanded that the UN Security Council convene in the near future to discuss additional sanctions.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday that the UN now has a "very strong case" for imposing more sanctions. She said the new report shows Tehran has failed to fully cooperate with UN atomic investigators, a good reason for the Security Council to consider a third round of sanctions.
....Ahmadinejad ... said another round of UN sanctions would be meaningless. "If they want to continue with that path (of sanctions), we will not be harmed. They can issue resolutions for 100 years," he told state television.....
Dudi Cohen, Amnon Meranda, Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
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