Turkish Election - what does it mean?

From GLORIA, July 28, 2007, by Barry Rubin ...

[Professor Rubin will tour Australia commencing next weekend. Watch your local media for an opportunity to hear him speak - SL]

Is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which won 47 percent of the vote in the July 22 election, going to make Turkey Islamist or not?

... the AK Party, which will have almost two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, is a pragmatic, conservative and business-oriented moderate party despite its roots as an Islamic-oriented one. However... in societal terms, the party probably is up to transforming Turkey from a secular into a more Islamic society.

“Actually, I think … Turkey has three basic choices: secularism, an open system or a more Islamic system. I think the party clearly intends to move Turkey from secularism to a more even system, to a more open system of equality between the secular and the religious. … Actually, I think there are three problems….”

“…The [first] question is… some of the main decisions …Who can be an army officer? Can you be an AK Party supporter and strongly practicing as an army officer? What kind of judges are you going to have? Are you going to have judges who may make ruling more because of considerations of Islamic law? What are you going to do with the educational system? Are you going to have equality between the Islamic -- the prayer leaders'-- schools and the government schools? And each of these decisions is going to be very controversial; how will they handle them, how hard will they push, how quickly will they move? So, that's the first problem. And a lot of that is tied up with the presidency because the president can make certain decisions.”

“…The second problem, I think, is the problem of the economy. I don't think there is any question that the good state of the economy was perhaps the single most important issue in the election, but can they keep this up? And there are certain dangerous sides. A key element of the success is the high interest rates. But if you continue the high interest rates, you have to pay the interest. And it is possible that at some point there could be a major crisis. Especially because this could mean that money is flowing out of Turkey. So, what happens if the economy doesn't do well? Will that mean they'd lose their support? That would bring a lot of political change….”

“…The third big problem issue is foreign policy. The most important issue in the Middle East and perhaps in the world is the question of radical Islamism. Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, it's becoming more powerful. There is a war in Iraq between two groups, I mean Sunnis and Shiites are the Islamist movements, and the Iraqi government is strongly Islamic flavored. You have the problem of Hezbollah trying to take over Lebanon. You have a problem of Syria even though it is a relatively secular regime, but is acting as if it were Islamist and supporting Islamist movements. You have Hamas trying to take over, perhaps taking over the Palestinian movement, the Muslim brothers. … The US to some extent and the West in general are against this development. But the Turkish government under the AK Party does not view these forces as enemies. I think it's important to remember that even if within Turkey, the party is not necessarily so Islamist, internationally it sees these as friends. This puts it [the AK Party] on the opposite side of the West….”

“….Although no one is going to say so in the government, the nature of the relationship between Turkey and the US has changed in very big way. That's my job to say things that no one else wants to say. I think that between 1946, and ... say 2002 or 2003, Turkey and the US were ally countries. And I don't think they're ally countries today…It's very easy to misunderstand my words. Countries can be enemies; they can be allies; they could be friendly and they could have good relations. Turkey and the US are not enemies, but they are not allies; they have good relations.

And incidentally the same thing applies to Europe. I think, under an AK Party government, Turkey will have good relations with Europe….”