Blair's Labour Loss

From OpinionJournal , Monday, May 8, 2006:

After the worst electoral loss of his career, Tony Blair has carried out the bloodiest purge ever of his cabinet. ... Friday's reshuffle can't substitute for a governing vision or the will to implement it. Mr. Blair and New Labour have been short on both counts of late and paid for it with a pasting in Thursday's local council elections. Unless the Prime Minister moves fast to assert himself, the only interesting question will be what job he'll take after Gordon Brown, the impatient heir apparent, moves into 10 Downing Street.

Mr. Blair has proven his political-obituary writers wrong before, most recently after last year's third consecutive but underwhelming Labour win. He took charge then, only to lose momentum. In the coming months, his biggest tests are on domestic policy. The Prime Minister wants Britain to embrace nuclear power, overhaul pensions and introduce market mechanisms into the educational and health care systems--all anathema to his 'old Labour' backbench.

That this Prime Minister's future depends on his success at home is ironic since his great passion, and historical legacy, is abroad. He pushed Western allies to save Kosovo's Albanians from Slobodan Milosevic and stood firmly with the U.S. against Saddam Hussein. Friday's demotion of Jack Straw from leading the Foreign Office to managing Labour MPs in Parliament suggests that Mr. Blair doesn't think he's done yet--which is good news if true.

Mr. Straw angered Number 10 by ruling out a military strike against the Iranian nuclear program as "inconceivable." Of all Western leaders, Mr. Blair has been most eloquent in warning that weapons of mass destruction in the wrong hands pose an existential threat. Iran is the next great challenge, and Mr. Blair's moral clarity could be a great asset in meeting it.

....The Conservatives, under new management by 39-year-old David Cameron, have benefited from Labour's troubles. The Tories won 40% of the vote Thursday, compared with Labour's 26%. For the first time in a decade, Britain no longer looks like a virtual one-party state. The image-conscious Mr. Cameron--who is so far shallow on substance--has three years before the next national election is due to prove that the Tories are back for real.

... Mr. Blair, who has promised to leave before the next national poll, can take heart that he has been one of the most successful politicians of his generation in Europe. His destiny is still in his own hands.