(An opinion piece) from Arutz Sheva - Israel National News: 20:44 Nov 16, '05 / 14 Cheshvan 5766 By Hillel Fendel ....
With the Likud preparing for new elections and the threat posed by Amir Peretz, Likud member and journalist Moshe Ifregan analyzes the significance of Peretz's win and how the party should respond.
'The Likud most definitely feels threatened by Peretz,' Ifregan told Arutz-7's Ariel Kahane this week, 'but what is more significant is the fact that Peretz's win has caused a tremendous shake-up, the ramifications of which can barely even be grasped.'
'For one thing,' Ifregan marveled, 'Ariel Sharon has lost his 'Archimedes Point' in Israeli politics, namely, [ex-Labor Party leader] Shimon Peres. Ever since Sharon was first elected almost five years ago, Peres always gave him political backing, to the point where Sharon never really had any opposition. Sharon was able to feel that he could essentially act alone, with no real threat against him.
Ifregan did not need to repeat the well-known fact that Peres, as leader of the Labor Party, had long been pushing to join a unity government with the Likud, and that once such a unity government was formed, resisted all efforts to dissolve it. Peretz, on the other hand, was outspokenly in favor of quitting the Likud government, and said before the election that this would be the first thing he would do. Yesterday, in fact, the Labor ministers accepted his position, voting unanimously to resign from the government at a time of Peretz's choosing.
New elections are being considered in early March 2006, or possibly in May."But Peretz has not only won," Ifregan continued, "he has also taken away Sharon's left-wing option for a [centrist] government. The feeling is that Sharon is facing a large vacuum. What choice does he have? Even if Sharon wins the primaries in the Likud, with whom will he form a government - with extreme left-wing Peretz? Or with the right-wing that he has already lost? Either option is bad for him." "I'm telling you," Ifregan said, "this victory by Peretz has had astonishing results. The feeling is that in one second, Sharon has lost everything. He is no longer king, but just a regular politician. This has not yet been absorbed by the political establishment. Sharon, in my opinion, never had a real strategy - he was merely an 'etrog' [precious Sukkot holiday fruit], protected by the media - but now he has lost even this, because the left-wing will no longer protect him. This is a dynamic process, with many ramifications still to be revealed.""True, there is a measure of unity now in Labor, as well as some election fever adrenaline.
But the Likud has many options: Peretz can be quickly made into mince-meat in the coming campaign, because he is vulnerable from all angles. He has no national experience, he can be portrayed as one who oppresses the economy with all his nationwide strikes, he is a Peace Now extreme left-winger, etc. The ball is in the Likud's court, and if it reacts correctly, it can win easily.""We have to absorb the fact that the Likud's electoral power is no longer from the right-wing. Even now, after the disengagement, the Likud still receives 35-37 seats in all the polls. The Likud's power is in the center, or what can be called the 'soft right' - those who bought the disengagement. They won't vote for the National Union. As soon as the Likud solves its internal problems, and comes up with a general policy that most of the MKs and ministers can agree with, it will be able to boast of its economic policies, and the Likud will win."s able to feel that he could essentially act alone, with no real threat against him.'
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