Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Gaza retreat will be followed by Palestinian war



Extracts from Daniel Pipes http://www.JewishWorldReview.com
18 May 2005:

Yasir Arafat's demise in November excited great hopes ...But those of us who saw the problem as larger than Arafat ...expected little change...

...Specifically, Abbas is unambiguously leading the Palestinians to war after the Israeli retreat from Gaza in August 2005. Consider some recent developments.

  • Hiring terrorists as soldiers...
  • Arming terrorists...
  • Inciting the population...
  • Pretend arrests of terrorists...

...The planned Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in August is likely to precipitate new rounds of violence. One could come in July, as the Israel Defense Forces engages in a massive sweep of Gaza to ensure that the forthcoming retreat takes place not under Palestinian fire.


...More violence will likely follow in September, as the Palestinians, Gaza now under their belt, begin a new assault on Israel. That round presumably will feature the substantial rocket arsenal that Hamas has been amassing.


...Ironically, the one thing that might prevent this scenario from playing out would be a Hamas victory in the Palestinian council elections scheduled for mid-July. Increasing numbers of Israeli voices are calling for the Gaza withdrawal to be postponed or even annulled should Hamas do well, as seems likely . For example, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has said if Hamas wins the elections, it would be "unreasonable" to implement the disengagement plan and allow Hamas to create a "Hamas-stan" in Gaza.


...So, there are many possibilities in the next four months. Their common element is that by September, the Arab-Israeli theater will be in yet worse shape than it is today.

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